Buy Hold Sell: 8 consistent ASX dividend stocks (and 2 big buys)

Are you finding equity income investing harder than it used to be? Well, you're not imagining it.

For years, income investors could build a portfolio of quality ASX dividend stocks and generate an attractive income stream without taking excessive risk. Today, that task has become far more challenging - but not impossible. 

The ASX's yield has fallen well below historical averages, bank share prices have rallied hard, and many of the market's traditional income favourites simply do not offer the yields they once did. At the same time, higher bond yields and attractive cash rates have given investors more alternatives than they've had in years.

So where can investors still find reliable income on the ASX? And which stocks continue to offer attractive yields without taking on undue risk?

In this special Income Series edition of Buy Hold Sell, Livewire's Tom Stelzer is joined by two ASX equity income gurus, in Peter Gardner from Plato Investment Management and Michael O'Neill from IML.

The pair run the ruler over eight ASX income stocks drawn from Carl Capolignua's list of the market's most consistent dividend payers (last year's edition below. Carl will update again this series). 

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The most consistent ASX dividend stocks

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They share where they see value, risk, and whether these companies still deserve a place in an income-focused portfolio. They also reveal one ASX stock each that they believe offers compelling income potential today.

Please note this episode was filmed on Wednesday 3 June 2026. 

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Edited transcript

Tom Stelzer: I'm Tom Stelzer and welcome to this special Income Series edition of Buy Hold Sell. With rising yields and tax changes on the way, it's an interesting time for income investors, but what's the outlook for ASX income stocks? Today I'm joined by Peter Gardner from Plato Asset Management and Michael O'Neill from IML to give their verdicts on eight ASX income stocks and share a pick of their own. Guys, thanks for joining us.

Before we dive into the stocks, I want to start by setting the scene for income investing at the moment. We've seen ASX yields drop on the one hand, but also on the other hand, I think changes in the budget that have arguably made income investing a bit more attractive. Mike, I might come to you first. What's your outlook on ASX yields going forward?

Michael O'Neill: The yield has compressed on the ASX. I think today on our forecast, it's 3.5% one year forward. The reason is that the index has outpaced the growth and dividends, particularly for the resources stocks, which were up over 50% year on year. The banks and the energy stocks have also done well, whereas non-bank industrials have largely gone backwards, but it's not all doom and gloom. 

If you take a bottom-up approach to looking for stocks, you can still find high-yield, low-risk stocks. If you look at our listed income ETF - EQIN - it includes 40-odd stocks all with an average dividend yield of 4.5%. And then if you've got other levers to pull such as options and franking, we achieve an income return of 7% after fees, including franking.

Tom Stelzer: Peter, different question to you. What impact do you think the recent budget changes will have on our equity income investing?

Peter Gardner: It's a good question. I think the budget changes are definitely negative for growth investing in terms of increasing the taxes and therefore reducing the after tax outcome for that. However, if you're looking at income investing, it's complicated because the impact of the budget was obviously very negative for property. Some of the banks and the consumer discretionary stocks, which you'd usually classify as income stocks, they took a real hit after the budget because we expect property prices to fall and therefore people spending on consumer discretionary to fall a bit. 

So it's definitely complicated. There are some income stocks that could potentially benefit from this. The other thing to note is that there were no changes to super and no changes to foreign investors as well, and they're an owner of a large chunk of our market as well. So I'm not convinced that these changes will in and of themselves make too many changes to equity prices.

BHP Group (ASX: BHP)

Tom Stelzer: It seems like it's a pretty interesting time. We'll see how things develop. We might move to the stocks now though. Peter, I might stay with you. We're going to start with a big one, BHP Group. Is that a buy, hold or sell?

Peter Gardner (BUY): It's a buy for us. So as Michael mentioned, resource stocks have been up over 50% last year. And so we've seen BHP's PE come back to the market. It's on a yield when you include franking of about four and a half percent, which is around the market level of yield at the moment. But we still like it. It's moved - obviously it announced in its February result that it's now more than 50% of its earnings come from copper and less from iron ore. 

And so I think that's one of the reasons why it's rerated strongly is because the market's now seeing it as a growth stock in terms of being a growth commodity because as we electrify everything, as we're building lots of data centres, the copper price is still going up. And so even though its yield has come back, we think its yield can grow from here going forward.

Tom Stelzer: Michael, Pete's mentioned the yield there. I think BHP is up what's 70% in a year or so. What's your take - Buy, hold or sell?

Michael O'Neill (HOLD): It's a hold for us. The concern being valuation. So certainly we agree copper is a bigger part of their earnings today and we do love the diversification of the business across iron ore, copper, met coal and their position on the cost curve is enviable. So it is our preferred major mining stock. Now I think we're at a point where we prefer the dynamics for copper over iron ore because for iron ore you've got new expansionary projects coming on, including Simandou. That wave of supply will depress prices. But I think now that today's share priced, the positive outlook for copper is now factored in.

National Australia Bank (ASX: NAB)

Tom Stelzer: Michael, I might stay with you. We're going to go to NAB next. Is that a buy holder sell?

Michael O'Neill (HOLD): NAB is a hold for us. So we're quite cautious on the major banks as a whole, but NAB is our preferred stock now having underperformed its peers quite significantly over the last quarter. We like their SME focused franchise relationship based. We think the returns will hold up relatively well there and they have less exposure to the budgetary impacts on housing and compression in mortgage growth. The valuation today is more appealing versus peers and I think they're well capitalised and have decent provisioning. 

Tom Stelzer: Pete, they're always a hot topic of conversation, the big four banks. What's your take on NAB?

Peter Gardner (SELL): NAB's a sell for us. Similar to Michael, we're pretty circumspect on the banks at the moment. Obviously, they've gone through a really good period over the last three years. Their price has gone up quite a lot. They've been riding the coattails of having very low bad debts, but we think that's changing the Australian economy. We obviously will see property prices probably come off quite a bit, which will mean people that have newly purchased their property - there might be a few more bad debts than they have been having through that area of the market. 

And we also think given the interest rate rises and the reduction in consumer spending, you might also see some increased bad debts from the small business end of the market as well. So NAB's looking decent value at the moment. It's a 6.6% gross yield when you include franking, but yeah, it's a sell for us given the earnings trajectory.

Suncorp Group (ASX: SUN)

Tom Stelzer: I'll stay with you, Pete, Suncorp's the next stock. I think it's down 18% in the last 12 months, but what's your take - buy, hold or sell?

Peter Gardner (HOLD): It's a hold for us. Its value is definitely looking better, but when you look at insurers, there are really three drivers for them. The first one is premiums and they look like they're increasing modestly. The second one is investment earnings. They look like they're going up given bond yields have been going up recently so that's a positive. But the thing that keeps us on the fence for Suncorp is their potential claims going forward. 

And that's all about the weather bureaus around the world are predicting us going into an El Nino or even a super El Nino period. And so that generally increases claims, particularly in Queensland, as a result of storms. And so that's what keeps us on the fence for Suncorp.

Tom Stelzer: Michael, Pete's touched on the impacts of weather there. What's your take on Suncorp - buy, hold or sell?

Michael O'Neill (BUY): It's a buy for us. So we've held Suncorp for the last five years, done reasonably well out of the stock, and it is still a core holding. And the reason is the quality of the business has improved. So management has executed well on divesting non-core assets on simplifying systems and they've just done a five-year strategic reinsurance deal. What this means is you've got a more focused retail general insurance business, a more sustainable margin, lower earnings volatility, and you should have ongoing buybacks and growth in dividends and the stock is yielding close to 5% today.

Telstra (ASX: TLS)

Tom Stelzer: Michael, I might stay with you. Another income favourite Telstra. Is that a buy, hold or sell?

Michael O'Neill (HOLD): Telstra is a hold for us. We hold a fair bit of Telstra lower down. Fair to say the thesis is playing out. The market's more rational. Optus now earns a profit and it's heading towards earning its cost of capital. So all that means the near-term earnings pathway for Telstra looks good and we should get buybacks and growth and dividends, but on 24 times price/earnings ratio, we're not chasing it here.

Tom Stelzer: That's Michael's take. Peter, what about you, Telstra? Buy, hold or sell?

Peter Gardner (BUY): It's a buy for us. We agree with most of Michael's points. It's a rational mobile market at the moment. That's really good. Telstra's keeping their costs pretty low in the current environment. So they're able to increase their dividends by more than their profit in the last year because their cashflow has actually been even stronger than their accounting earnings as a result of that and reduced costs. So that's really positive for Telstra. And we just think yes, their valuation has got higher, but compared with comparable stocks in the market, they're still looking decent value to us and we think they've still got room to increase their dividend from here.

Coles Group (ASX: COL)

Tom Stelzer: Pete, I'll stay with you next up. Supermarket giant Coles - share price flat over the last year or so, forward dividend yield around 3% or so. Is that a buy, hold or sell?

Peter Gardner (HOLD): So that's a hold for us as well. With Coles, they've done pretty well over the last three years. They've been winning the supermarket wars over Woolworths, but we think Woolworths have picked up their act a bit in the last six to 12 months. And so we think that thesis of Coles outperforming Woolies is largely played out. And so then when you're looking at Coles going forward, we think the challenges are that wage increases are high. Obviously, the Fair Work Commission put up wages by 4.75%, and that will impact Coles because they're obviously a big employer. Plus we're also an environment where the government is very focused and the ACCC is pretty focused on supermarket margins at the moment. And so we think that means that Coles and Woolworths will struggle to increase their margins in this environment. So that's why it's a hold for us.

Tom Stelzer: Michael, Peter's touched on the scrutiny on the big supermarkets at the moment. What's your take on Coles, buy, hold or sell?

Michael O'Neill (HOLD): Coles is a hold for us as well and certainly agree that Coles has gone through a journey of closing the gap to Woolies, addressing availability, improving online through Ocado and their automated fulfilment. And yes, we should probably see a moderation in the margin improvement from here for them, although they do get some sales growth. So we're expecting mid single digit earnings growth. For us, it's more appealing than Woolworths because of the valuation gap. 

Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS)

Tom Stelzer: We're going to jump sectors now. Michael, I'll stay with you. Woodside, is that a buy, hold or sell?

Michael O'Neill (SELL): Woodside is a sell for us. So certainly think they own very high quality oil and gas assets. Northwest Shelf is the largest LNG project in Australia. For us, the issue is the capital programme ahead of them. The CapEx they've got to spend in the next three years. If you take Louisiana LNG, that's $10 billion, that's their share of the CapEx. I think their project in Mexico, it's almost five billion and they've still got to finish Scarborough this calendar year. So we prefer Santos because they don't have that CapEx hump over the next three years. So you'll see improving cash flows and better returns for shareholders.

Tom Stelzer: Pete, oil's probably been the biggest word in markets in 2026. What's your take on Woodside - buy, hold or sell?

Peter Gardner (HOLD): It's a hold for us. Yeah, we agree with the CapEx things that Michael was talking about, but their projects do seem like they're going pretty well at the moment. We haven't seen any cost blowouts at the moment, so that's a positive. There's no red flags in terms of the business for us. The challenge is obviously that what happens to Woodside is what happens to oil. And so in the current environment where the oil's based on what's happening with the Iran crisis, which is very difficult predict for us. So what we do in our portfolios in this kind of environment is try and neutralise our exposure to oil so that we don't get stung based on what Trump announces today or tomorrow, because we think it's pretty hard to see how this event plays out. So that's what keeps us on hold.

Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN)

Tom Stelzer: Pete, I'll stay with you. It's been another big theme in markets over the last year or so - Evolution Mining - buy, hold or sell?

Peter Gardner (BUY): That's a buy for us. It's another challenging one given the gold price is also a bit hard to value given there's no true valuation for it. What we like about Evolution is that it's really well-run business. It produces a lot of copper as well, which we do like. They put copper under their cost reductions or it reduces their costs, that's an off-take. They're doing well in that area of the business. Plus we do also see the structural demand for gold going forward, given government deficits around the world are incredibly high. If you're worried about that as an investor, then gold's a good place, a safe haven in that kind of environment. And plus we're also seeing a fair amount of buying from central banks around the world. So recently China has been buying up after this recent dip in terms of the central bank buying. So we think the demand holds up for gold in this environment.

Tom Stelzer: Michael, what about you? Evolution, gold, what's the story?

Michael O'Neill (HOLD): It's a hold for us as well. Certainly agree with Pete that gold is hard to predict. We've come off our January peak, but the prices are still very high because of those dynamics around central bank buying and the dollar. So we're cautious on the gold price, but if we were to own a gold miner, Evolution is one of the higher-quality miners because of that second quartile cost position, particularly in Ernest Henry and North Parks where they do extract copper alongside the gold and the jurisdictions in Canada and Australia, the long mine life, it makes it a better quality asset amongst the gold miners.

Amcor (ASX: AMC)

Tom Stelzer: Last cab off the rank, Michael, I'll stay with you. Amcor. Buy hold or sell.

Michael O'Neill (BUY): Amcor's a buy. Over 6.5% yield, 95% of their business in supplying primary packaging is in defensive healthcare, food and beverage. We've seen volumes under pressure, partly because of inflation, partly because their main customer Pepsi has been aggressively discounting and losing share. We do know that as we come into a position where inflation stabilises, fast moving consumer goods recover quickly. So we'll wash through that. But really the buy case for Amcor is their Berry Global merger. That should see them taking out $530 million of cost synergies. Some of it is low hanging fruit like procurement and that should underpin 34% earnings growth cumulatively over the next three years. We have a proof point to give us some understanding of management credibility. That's the Bemis deal they did in 2019, which was similar.

Tom Stelzer: Pete, Michael's touched on the dividend yield there. What's your take on Amcor by how to sell?

Peter Gardner (SELL): We've got Amcor on a sell. So it's obviously been under pressure in the last 12 months and that's largely because their earnings have been downgraded over that time. So it's not like it's become that much cheaper. Why's it a sell for us is that we've got a lot of red flags on our process. A lot of that's related to how aggressive they are in their accounting and also the strong growth that they've had in the business through that acquisition. We think that definitely the synergies are potentially there, but it's a very risky time for the business. And so we'd want to see how they digest that Berry acquisition and also look for some earnings growth going forward before we'd step in.

GUEST PICKS

Tom Stelzer: We've also asked our guests to bring one ASX stock they think offers good income potential. Peter, I'll come back to you. What do you have for us?

Macquarie Group (ASX: MQG)

Peter Gardner (BUY): I've got Macquarie. It's not the highest income name. It's only about three and a half percent yield at the moment, gross yield, including franking. The recent result was probably a good indication of why we like Macquarie. They've got four main divisions and they're all firing at the moment. I'll mention a couple of them. Their banking division is doing really well. They're taking share off the major banks in both deposits and also their home loans. So I think that's growing by about 28% at the moment. So that's doing really well. Their commodities trading business is also doing incredibly well given the volatility. It benefits from volatility in commodity prices. And with the current US president in charge, we don't see the volatility ending anytime soon. And then lastly, their infrastructure division has been selling assets and so we've been seeing some performance fees come through from that and we see that continuing for the next couple of years. So it's not the highest yield, but we think that yield grows from here. And so we like Macquarie.

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (ASX: DBI)

Tom Stelzer: Michael, Peter's given us Macquarie. What do you got for us?

Michael O'Neill (BUY): Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure. So DBI is the stock. It's quite a unique asset. They own critical infrastructure. They've got a lease over the Dalrymple Bay coal terminal until 2051 with an option to extend till 2100. They get inflation linked pricing on the coal that they distribute for some of the best met coal producers in the world. So it's quite a light-handed regulatory regime that they operate under. They don't take volume risk. It's 100% take or pay. They don't take operating risk in that they get pass throughs of operational and maintenance cost and the cost is socialised. So if one of their 11 customers goes broke or shuts down, the costs are socialised amongst the others. So very, very low downside risk. 

They get increases in their distributional cash flows above and beyond inflation because they're investing non-expansion CapEx. So they've guided to 3% to 7% growth in distribution per annum for the foreseeable future, very little downside risk. And at 2031, when their contract comes up for a renewal, there's a chance for them to renegotiate price upwards because right now the demand for distribution through that port exceeds the supply by 37% and their prices are materially below that of the nearby terminals.

Tom Stelzer: So there you have it. 10 ASX income stocks put through their paces. Thanks to our guests and thanks for watching. Make sure to check out the YouTube channel for more Buy Hold Sell.