Buy Hold Sell: How the pros are setting their portfolios for 2026

Looking back at 2023, 2024 and 2025, it’s hard not to think: wasn’t it easy to make money?

As the table below shows, almost everything went up. With around 95% of asset classes delivering positive returns, avoiding losses wasn’t the challenge - owning enough of the winners was.

But periods of easy money don’t last forever. Eventually, the macro backdrop shifts, leadership changes, and returns begin to diverge sharply across assets, as investors saw in years like 2018 and 2022.

With that in mind, we invited two market pros - Michael Wayne from Medallion Financial Group and Adam Dawes from Shaw and Partners - to discuss where investors should be positioning, and where trimming exposure may make sense heading into the new year. 

Plus, they nominate their ASX 200, S&P 500, RBA cash rate and gold targets in a lightning round.

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday, 17 December 2025.

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Edited Transcript

Vishal Teckchandani: Welcome to Buy Hold Sell, brought to you by Livewire Markets. My name is Vishal Teckchandani. After a three-year golden run, when almost every asset class rose in value, the question now is what does 2025 hold and which ETFs make sense going into the year ahead? Joining me are Michael Wayne from Medallion Financial and Adam Dawes from Shaw and Partners to discuss how they're positioning for the year ahead and to nominate some of their best ETF ideas that might benefit your portfolio in 2026. And we're going to finish off with a lightning round off their targets for key benchmarks. Gentlemen, welcome to both of you.

Where are we in the market cycle?

Vishal Teckchandani: Michael, I kick off with you. Where do you think we are in the market cycle right now?

Michael Wayne: Look, it's interesting because for the first time in three years, the markets in Australia at least look like they're going to have some earnings growth. So you would think that's, broadly speaking, a positive. As long as interest rates don't go up too drastically and too quickly, we're pretty constructive on the outlook. Unemployment remains fairly strong. Activity in the broader economy remains fairly strong. There's a lot of government spending, a lot of infrastructure spending. So we are cautiously optimistic about next year, particularly because of that earnings growth coming through the market.

Vishal Teckchandani: Same question to you, Adam. Michael's cautiously optimistic. Do you feel the same way?

Adam Dawes: I am a little bit. I think we're going to see some earnings growth, which is great because the ASX hasn't had any kind of growth really for many years, and so getting a little bit there. I still think international markets are the place to be and you need to have a portion of your portfolio in those areas, especially if we do have some interest rate cuts in the US next year, that's going to fuel things going forward. So commodities are looking really good and about 60% of our market is commodities. So I think next year with the commodity trade, hopefully firming up a little bit, we should be okay on the ASX.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. Commodity trade, good segue into the asset class outlook, which is what we'll turn to. So Australian equities, what's your outlook for the Australian markets specifically? Where do you see the opportunities?

Australian equities outlook

Adam Dawes: So certainly the opportunities and you mean ETFs, the opportunities?

Vishal Teckchandani: Just in a broader sense and then we'll talk about the ETFs.

Adam Dawes: Okay. Broader sense. Obviously, commodities I think is going to be the trade. This year we had the banks doing a lot of the heavy lifting and then there was a bit of a selloff and now the commodity market is really starting to move. So I really think the commodity market and certainly staying in the lithium, copper, the minerals side of things and staying clear of the bulk commodities is somewhere that I'll be looking for in 2026.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. So commodities, critical minerals are hot trade. When an Australian investor invests in the Australian market, the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF, one of the most popular ways to play the Australian market, buy, hold, sell.

Adam Dawes: Look, certainly you would buy it. I think a better ETF… I mean, the VAS is a very good one because it's got the top 300, but I think the A200, if we're staying in the ASX 200, that has an MER of four basis points. So, it's the cheapest in the market. For an index ETF, I think that's a better place to be.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. So more cost-effective going with A200. Michael, same question to you. What's your outlook for Australian equity specifically?

Michael Wayne: To echo some of Adam's sentiments, obviously this year has been driven heavily by the bank performance and it's unlikely that that same performance is going to be replicated next year. So given the large index weightings of the banks, you've got to turn your attention to other sectors to really do the heavy lifting. And the obvious candidate there is the commodity space. We have seen very strong gold prices, coppers at all-time highs. So, if that momentum in the commodities sphere can continue, then some of those big index weights like your BHPs, like your RIOs, should be able to drive the market higher. So we are cautiously optimistic and we think that the index drivers could help propel the market forward next year.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. And to play the indexes, is VAS a good way to play it?

Michael Wayne: Oh, look, in terms of an ASX passive exposure, that's as good as any. So that is probably something that you would hold if you held it within your portfolio already. I wouldn't be adding more Aussie equities exposure, but if you didn't hold any Aussie equities exposure at all, in that case, the VAS could be a good buy.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. Any other ETFs you're thinking about for the Australian market?

Michael Wayne: Yeah, we don't mind the ASX MidCap 50 ETF - MVE is the code for that particular ETF. Broadly speaking, we like the mid-cap space. Going back 15, 20 years, if you look at the performance of the Aussie mid-cap index versus the ASX 20 or ASX 200 or even the ASX small caps, by far and away, the best performer has been the mid-cap index. These are multi-billion dollar companies. They're very established, but they're not mature. So the earnings growth still continues to come through for a lot of the names that make up that index.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. So our consensus is building a bit around commodities. You like mid-caps, you still like all cap exposure. Michael, staying with you, what's the outlook for global equities though?

Global equity outlook

Michael Wayne: If you think about global equities, the US makes up an enormous component of the MSCI global index, 70% or so. So you've got to be comfortable with the performance of the US index when talking about global exposure. And like Australia, we are optimistic for next year. We do think the ingredients are there for this bull market to continue overseas. They've got a different situation where interest rates have been going lower and potentially still on the way down. You've obviously got an enormous thematic playing out with AI and you've also got the Europeans spending big on defence. A lot of the Trump policies - tariffs might actually bring in a fair amount of revenue to support some of the government spending that's planned there. So we do think that the global markets can continue to rally, but you've got to keep in mind that it's a lot of US exposure, a lot of Magnificent Seven exposure within that.

Vishal Teckchandani: So global markets, a key way to play that is the Betashares Global Shares ETF, but I guess what that ETF gives you is everything. Do you want to be everywhere or do you want to go in some specific pockets? Buy, hold, sell?

Michael Wayne: So I would have a buy on it, that particular ETF. But as I touched upon, I think 70% of that ETF is US exposed. And if you look at the top 10 names, there's many of the household names everyone's become familiar with from those Magnificent Sevens. So just be wary of that. You're really getting a very small amount exposed to that. So if you're looking for genuine global exposure excluding the US, there is an ETF called EXUS, which gives you global exposure excluding US because many of the investors will hold say a NASDAQ ETF or an S&P 500 ETF. So, conscious that people hold that already within their portfolios. They might be looking for broader global exposure, and that's a decent way to go about it. EXUS, have a look at that.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. So Adam, Michael makes a really great point. You maybe don't want to just invest in things which have that heavy US, heavy Mag 7 exposure. How are you feeling about global equities next year?

Adam Dawes: I think global equities are going to continue to go. Remember, we've got Jerome Powell, the Fed governor leaving in May next year. Trump is going to be putting in somebody who's going to be a little bit more amenable to potentially interest rates coming down. And so if we do see some very aggressive interest rate cuts, that's going to be a massive sugar hit to the US market. Obviously markets love free money. So that is going to be very, very positive momentum, which means in 2027 we might have a little bit more of a hangover than we expected.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. All right. In anticipation of said hangover, is BGBL the best place to put your money for global equity exposure?

Adam Dawes: I echo Michael's comments. You don't want to be too concentrated in those areas, and especially with that Magnificent Seven, and especially a lot of other clients will potentially have some IVV or some S&P 500 or something like that. I use two ETFs for that exposure, both the Vanguard ones. Vanguard VEU is an All World ex-US. So that's a great way for you to get the rest of the world, but don't have US in there. And then I use VTS. So it's combined two ETFs in there and VTS is the US market or NASDAQ, S&P and all of that kind of thing. So putting both of those together, you're getting that real great exposure in the US, but also getting that global feel as well.

Vishal Teckchandani: We've talked about our key growth exposures. Let's turn to fixed income and cash. What's the outlook for fixed income and cash?

Fixed income and cash outlook

Adam Dawes: Certainly, I think fixed income is going to be more and more prevalent for clients as they age. They are all looking for it. We've also talked about it ad nauseum. The hybrid market is slowing down and finding a solution for that. And there's been a lot of products that have come out this year that have allowed for that fixed income or that fixed interest side of things to go. So I think fixed income will continue to do well. If we get some interest rate rises here in Australia, those ones that are fixed, you can look at, but also those variable ones aren't too bad as well. So I think the market will do well and is a need in the market which a lot of these product providers are providing.

Vishal Teckchandani: So one of the most popular ways to play fixed income in Australia is the IAF, the iShares Australian fixed income ETF from BlackRock. Buy, hold, sell?

Adam Dawes: I think it's a buy. It's done quite well. And in fact, it's probably one of the better shareholder returns that we've seen in the bond market for government side of things. I do use also XARO, which is Ardea ETF, and they're more active traders inside of that and they can eke out another 1-2% on top of those returns. And so you can use both of those in your portfolio. One, be more aggressive, but then two, making sure that those bonds are fitting the purpose for that asset allocation in your portfolio.

Vishal Teckchandani: Michael, same question to you. Outlook for fixed income.

Michael Wayne: To Adam's point, there's definitely a lot of demand out there these days for fixed income. In 2022, rates rocketed higher, and for the first time in many, many years, fixed income investing became attractive for the first time in a long time. So that's just something that's really driven that demand. You obviously had a situation where bank dividends per share or dividend yields have fallen. Rental yields on investment properties have been under pressure too. So for the first time in a long time, fixed income investing's become more attractive. The direction of interest rates from here is anyone's guess really. A lot of the banks are now predicting a couple of rate rises next year. In that situation, you probably want to be considering your floating rate fixed income exposure because in that environment, fixed rate exposure actually can come under some pressure. And we've seen that in recent weeks as the markets readjusted their interest rate expectations. So that is just something to consider as an investor. You also might want to look at zero duration, fixed income products whereby the changes in interest rates aren't going to affect your return. So there are a couple of options in the market for that.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. So if you were a fixed income investor, you're reviewing your fixed income allocation at this time of year. IAF, what do you do with it? Buy, hold, sell?

Michael Wayne: Well, I think it's a hold if you have that fixed income component to your portfolio. It's not the most exciting thing in the world. It's a very low risk, safe product. Gaining most of your exposure in that portfolio is to Australian government bonds. So the chances of a default you would think is very, very low. Then you've also got some state government bonds and also I think some semis as well. So very low risk product, happy to hold it as a core position within a portfolio, but don't expect too many fireworks. And just be conscious that if interest rate expectations get revised even higher from here, you can see that portfolio drop 2-3% in capital value pretty quickly. So if you take a very long term view with it, you should be fine, but just be aware that in the short term it is impacted by fluctuations in expectations around interest rates.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. So for holding that, is there a fixed income ETF you want to be adding?

Michael Wayne: Well, there's lots of different exposures you can gain these days. One particularly interesting one is the Seed Financial Income Fund run by Nick Chaplin, who has been in the industry for a very long time. Again, that's not Aussie government bond exposure. That's a lot of bank hybrids, less so these days, but a lot of bank subordinated debt as well. And they are able to generate a very good return relative to their benchmark and probably eke out a couple more percent than what you would get from a very low risk government bond focused ETF.

Gold outlook

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. All right. The final asset class before we head to the lightning round. Gold. What's the outlook, Michael?

Michael Wayne: Gold. The outlook for gold… it's hard after a stupendous run like we've seen over the last period of time. But I think the momentum can continue. I wouldn't expect the same returns next year as this year, but I think the interest rates in the global space are on the way down still. And that ultimately, I think, is supportive of gold. At the margins, you've got central banks continuing to buy gold. You've seen the long-dated US treasuries continue to come under pressure. So people are at the margins, and I say at the margins because there's a very small amount, slowly adjusting their exposures away from government debt, they're a bit worried around the amount of debt that is out there in the world, and you are seeing that demand continue to come through for gold. So I think the gold still has a decent outlook.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. And so if you were holding bullion in your portfolio and the GXLD ETF from Global X is one of the most popular choices, buy, hold, sell?

Michael Wayne: I would go a hold if you held in your portfolio. If you didn't hold gold, I think you want to have some exposure.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. Same question to you. What's the outlook for gold?

Adam Dawes: So look, I think overall gold, as long as Trump stays in, gold will continue to run because it is the uncertainty that he provides, which is why the defensive nature of gold and has been so attractive going forward. So I think most clients should have around about 5% of their portfolio in a gold asset because of that defensive nature going forward. So yeah, we still have a positive view on gold in 2026.

Vishal Teckchandani: GXLD, buy, hold, sell? If not, what's another idea?

Adam Dawes: So yeah, you definitely hold that. I like the GOLD. It's just the commodity. We're not mucking around with anything else. And so there's not many things, but yeah, for me, GOLD is the one that I put in clients' portfolios.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay, wonderful. All right, everyone, it's time for something fun now. Michael and Adam have agreed to share their market predictions in a lightning round. So gents, I'll call out the asset class. You give me your target and a rapid explanation. Just one sentence will do. Michael, I'll kick off with you, the ASX target for 2026.

LIGHTNING ROUND

ASX target

Michael Wayne: Yeah, around 9,000 points. If you're going to have the dichotomy in the ASX market, I don't think the banks will do much of the heavy lifting, so it's going to have to come from somewhere else. So I think that 5% gain more or less is achievable.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. Adam?

Adam Dawes: I'm going to be a little bit more bullish. 9,250. I did actually say 9,500, but I agree that it's going to probably pull back a little bit. So look, above 9,000, I think we're all going to be really happy. I mean, that's a big number for us and we have, after COVID and everything, we have moved higher. I do think that the commodity market is going to do the heavy lifting, which is going to help our overall market move forward. So around about that 925 to 9,500, somewhere in there.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. Good year for Australia. Okay. S&P 500 target for the end of 2026.

S&P 500 target

Adam Dawes: Well, what did it do this year? Did about-

Vishal Teckchandani: We're at 6,900 now.

Adam Dawes: We did about 13% this year. So I suspect we could probably do another 13% or another 10 to 15%. So somewhere in there, let's say 7,500, something like that might push it forward. But like I said, if we do get this sugar hit midway through next year, it could surprise us all to the upside.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. Michael, S&P 500?

Michael Wayne: Tough going, this forecasting. I think 7,500 odd, I think is realistic. That's more or less in line with the long-term average, so a bit of a cop out there. But again, you're so reliant on the mega caps to drive the index performance. You could well end up with a situation where the mega caps have a bit of a breather, but a lot of the small mid-cap into the market finally has their timeline.

Adam Dawes: That'd be great though. Yeah. That'd be right.

Michael Wayne: That would be great, but it might not look at an index level, but below the surface, it could be really good.

Vishal Teckchandani: Those holding equal-weight ETFs can only dream. RBA cash rate ending 2026.

RBA cash rate target

Michael Wayne: I'm going to go 4.1%. A couple of rate rises, which is more or less in line with consensus these days. That's my prediction.

Vishal Teckchandani: I don't think I've come across such an RBA bull before. Adam, what about you?

Adam Dawes: I'm going to say who knows. I mean, it is just one of those things that we just don't know. I think a couple of interest rate rises is where we should be. So let's say around fours. Yeah. Yeah, it's a tough one.

Gold target

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. Lastly, gold for the end of 2026. We're at 4,300 now.

Adam Dawes: Yeah. So I think 4,600 by midyear, 4,900 by the end of the year if I wanted to get really specific. I think, as I said, I think that gold is going to continue to be that defensive asset. We're seeing a lot of buying from governments. We're seeing a lot of corporate... It's just constantly moving. So Bitcoin has fallen off a little bit on the wayside, which was the one example why gold wasn't running a year ago, two years ago. I think that metal is going to continue, and it is more speculative than ever. So there is going to be more volatility next year, but generally it will continue to go higher.

Vishal Teckchandani: Michael?

Michael Wayne: I'm going to say a 5% increase or so in the gold price towards that 5,000 barrier. I expect it to be a volatile year with gold, given the big run-up that we've had. And the Aussie dollar gold price, however, might come under pressure if the Aussie dollar keeps rallying versus the US dollar. So something to keep in mind for our Aussie-focused investors.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. Friends, that's it. Thank you so much. The golden run is expected to continue. Really appreciate your time.

Adam Dawes: Thank you.

Michael Wayne: Thank you.

Vishal Teckchandani: I hope you enjoyed this video. Year-end is all about making good decisions. If you're looking to rebalance, what to trim, what to take out and what to add in your portfolio. Hopefully, this helps you head into 2026 with more clarity. Don't forget to follow our new Instagram channel at Buy Hold Sell podcast. Wishing you a Merry Christmas. My name is Vishal Teckchandani.