Buy Hold Sell: The ASX's top management teams

The key to any great institution is the management team behind the scenes. Take the example of Justin Holbrook, who has guided the Newcastle Knights from wooden spooners to NRL grand finalists in the space of a year.

And the ASX has long been home to stellar management teams who have turned their companies into global winners. 

In this episode of Livewire's Buy Hold Sell, I'm joined by Sean Roger from Perpetual Asset Management Australia and Joseph Koh from Blackwattle Investment Partners to deliver the calls on five ASX stocks with respected management teams, and share their pick for the ASX management team to beat.

Please note this episode was filmed on 23 September 2026.

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Edited transcript

Tom Stelzer: I'm Tom Stelzer and welcome to Livewire's Buy Hold Sell. It's NRL grand final week, and while the players will be taking centre stage behind the scenes, it's the coaching staff that can make all the difference. Today, I'm joined by Sean Roger from Perpetual and Joseph Koh from Blackwattle to give their calls on the ASX stocks with the best management teams that are turning their companies into winning machines. Guys, thanks for joining us. 

We're going to get straight into the stocks. Joe, I'll come to you first. 

1 - Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA)

First up, we have Commonwealth Bank. Are you a buy, hold or sell there?

Joseph Koh (SELL): We are a sell for CBA. Well-run company and famously one of the most expensive banks in the world, I think as Barronjoey said, but more than just a valuation issue. We think when you look at the competition, there's a lot more pressure in mortgages and in deposits. And those are the two key franchises for CBA. 

So in deposits, if you look back at say 2019, Macquarie Group were about 9% the size of CBA's mortgage book. They're getting closer to touching 30% of CBA's mortgage book. That's a lot more competition. At the same time, you've got mortgage brokers now accounting for 80% of new mortgage applications and was more like 60% in 2019. And if you think of what mortgage brokers do, they basically help you get the best deal. And so that will drive more price competition. So whether you've got more competition from Macquarie or more brokers driving more competition, that's going to be squeezing the profitability of the mortgage book for CBA.

Similarly with deposits, Macquarie was about less than 5% of the deposit base for CBA back in 2019. It's getting on 25% the size of CBA's deposit, and they've just announced more of a push into term deposits in that product as well. And so that increase in competition means that CBA will be under pressure for two of the main franchises. 

When you look at other options, we look at NatWest Group in the UK, they have a higher ROE than CBA. They're growing the loan book faster. And rather than trading on 23 times PE, they trade it more like nine times PE. So the huge gap in valuation for a company that's just as well, if not a stronger franchise than CBA.

Tom Stelzer: Sean. I think Joe said there, competition may be the big challenge. In terms of management, Matt Comyn's been there almost a decade. It still is the bank to beat in Australia, are you buy, hold, or sell on Commonwealth Bank?

Sean Roger (HOLD): I'm going to say a hold. Look, I think Matt Comyn is a great CEO and the company's been well run for a long period of time. It's got a great retail franchise. And I think the way they've been at the forefront of the technology piece I think is something - an asset that's going to put them in really good stead over the next five, 10 years as AI rolls through. 

I think for the stock from here, there's clearly some earnings headwinds on the horizon, which is something that over the last few years have had really favourable conditions. But I think we're looking forward, you're going to have slower credit growth post the tax change. I think there is some risk from a credit quality perspective. It can only really go one way from here. And finally, I think the competition piece is a really interesting one.

I think it has been a competitive environment, but there's a risk that it gets more competitive. We've been in an environment where credit growth of the system's been strong, both in business and personal. The risk is as that sort of overall growth pool slows, that the competition heats up as they compete for growth and that ultimately flows through NIM and earnings. So I think there are some earnings headwinds there. A lot of people are talking about them. I think that's well known, but it can certainly be worse than what's expected. 

The one thing I'd say for CBA which sets them apart from its competitors, I mentioned it before, was just the AI piece. And I think they are a long way down the road relative to their competitors and that should give them the ability to manage their cost base more efficiently and effectively than the key competitors in Australia.

Putting that all together, look, the bank is clearly still expensive relative to fundamentals, but it has come down from where it was and there is a fair bit of negativity out there and sentiment towards the bank space. So I'm halfway between a sell and a hold, but I'll go hold today.

2 - Pinnacle Investment Management (ASX: PNI)

Tom Stelzer: I'll stay with you for our next one. It's Pinnacle Investment Management. Are you a buy, hold or sell there?

Sean Roger (BUY): I'm going to say Pinnacle's a buy. Obviously very noisy at the moment with all the press around Metrics and everything that's going on in private credit. And I think they're fair concerns. It's hard not to say there's going to be no stress in the portfolio given what we're seeing in terms of construction costs and asset prices on the other side. So it's something we're certainly wary of, but I think it does need to be taken in context for Pinnacle of the size of that Metrics exposure relative to the overall company. And at about 10% of earnings relative to what the impact on the share price has been, we feel like it's very much in the price. 

I think excluding Metrics, the Pinnacle business to us is in the best shape it's been in for a long period of time. The platform they've stood up overseas I think is really getting some runs on the board.

Obviously life cycle's been an outstanding success and I think we'll only open up further doors for them to continue to replicate that moving forward. I think the PAM business they bought in UK is also a really good asset with good growth prospects. So I think overall for a company that's sort of derated as much as it has, historically it's generated 20% plus growth through the cycle, I think it's well placed to continue to do that and the multiple is really attractive on that basis. So it's a buy.

Tom Stelzer: Joe, I think Sean's mentioned it there. The international expansion is probably the key story. Are you a buy hold or sell on Pinnacle?

Joseph Koh (BUY): We're a buy. We agree with Sean that they're very impressive in terms of getting distribution up and running, especially on the global scale. From a standing start, they've gotten Life Cycle from nothing two years ago to over $40 billion in FUM. That's incredibly impressive and their ability to attract that team and then attract the FUM means that they will build to do that for other teams in the future. 

I think a lot of fund managers globally were looking at that example and saying, we want to join Pinnacle because they've got great distribution and look what we've done in life cycle. And to Sean's other point, the PAM business will accelerate the growth in the UK and the private wealth space. That's another opportunity for them to grow. And yes, with Metrics, yes, there's some issues around private debt, but again, 10% of earnings, share price has fallen by something like 28% since the earnings result came out.

Earnings result was great and it was all fine. It's more just some near term issues around the accounts for the metrics business, but way overblown we think in terms of a share price reaction.

3 - Wesfarmers (ASX: WES)

Tom Stelzer: I'll stay with you, Joe, for our next one, which is Wesfarmers, pretty classic consumer Australian company there. I suppose Kmart and Bunnings are the heavy lifters on that front, but are you a buy, hold or sell?

Joseph Koh (HOLD): We're more of a hold on Wesfarmers. We think great management - they've done a great job in Bunnings and in Kmart. For Bunnings, they just continue to add category after category. More recently it's been pets and autos, age and disability care products. And that's just been something they've done for the long term. And I think Schneider's done a really good job in Bunnings. And on Kmart, Guy Ross has done a really good job in the past as well. Getting up the Anko business, we've seen really good traction there and that will be reasonably defensive in a weaker economy as well. 

Our concern is really just on valuations where PE again is a bit high in the high 20s. You paying a fair bit and it is a somewhat mature business. You do see additional growth a little bit at the margins for Bunnings, but even Kmart's getting towards the end of its growth runway.

Tom Stelzer: Sean, Joe's a bit concerned there on valuation, but what's your take on Wesfarmers?

Sean Roger (HOLD): Yeah, I'm going to say hold as well. I think to your point, Tom, Bunnings and Kmart are obviously the key assets within that group. And I think the latest result you saw, I guess their quality shine through their resiliency relative to some of the other parts of the consumer discretionary market showed just why they are such high quality retail businesses. 

That said, I think it does get a bit tougher from here. They've obviously been highly successful, especially in Bunnings in that product and category expansion into pets and auto and they'll keep doing things like that. But just with the consumer a bit softer, I think for them to continue at that three to 4% like for likes will be tough. 

Like all good conglomerates, there's always something that seems to be working and picking up the slack. And I think the lithium business as that scales over the next couple of years will help take over the growth driver.

It is sensitive to lithium prices though, so I think there's some risk in that, but ultimately they look set to continue to be able to deliver the earnings growth that they're known for. It is valuation though. I think it's come back from a fair way from where it was. I don't think it should have ever been where it was, but look, mid-to-high twenties multiple does still feel quite full despite it being high quality assets. So I'm a hold.

4 - Breville Group (ASX: BRG)

Tom Stelzer: I'll stay with you for our next one, it's another consumer name: Breville Group. Are you a buy, hold or sell there?

Sean Roger (HOLD): I'm going to say hold again to be boring, but look, I think it's a great business and a great product. You don't hear too many consumers of their product that have got the coffee machines at home complain about them. It always tends to be really positive feedback. 

I think it's been a tough 18 months as they've had to digest the tariffs and moving the supply chains around. It's put a bit of pressure on gross margin, but I think there still is a long growth runway there. You've got growth in big markets like the US. They've changed some of the distribution around there with Best Buy, which is going really well, but they've also got geographic expansion. They move into China and some other geographies. I think it gives them a runway there to continue generating that top line growth. 

The other thing we like is they've got a long history of, and it's a credit to the management team of really reinvesting in the business, both into marketing and sales, but also product development.

I think that's why they get such strong and sustainable top line growth. So lots to like there, but again, high 20s PE, it's fully priced I think for the quality business. So it's a hold.

Tom Stelzer: Joe, Sean touched on it. I think they navigated the tariff situation pretty well. I think it moved a lot of production out of China into the Americas and elsewhere. It's also seen some pretty good growth in sales across the Americas, but you are buy, hold or sell on Breville?

Joseph Koh (SELL): We're a sell, but for the similar reasons on valuation. So I think to your point, they've managed it really well in terms of business and growing into the US and other countries. 

When we look at the alternatives though, you've got DeLonghi trading in the teens in terms of PE rather than high 20s for Breville. SharkNinja trades at a slight discount, maybe 26 times PE versus, say, 28 times for Breville. And SharkNinja is growing maturely faster than Breville. And so when you look at the alternatives on a global market, I thinks that it makes Breville look somewhat expensive despite the good management track record of the company.

5 - Nick Scali (ASX: NCK) 

Tom Stelzer: I'll stay with you for our last one. It's Nick Scali, CEO there, Anthony Scali, son of Nick. So it's still keeping in the family, but are you a buy, hold or sell on Nick Scali?

Joseph Koh (HOLD): We're a hold on Nick Scali. Again, really good management and the expansion into the UK is getting good traction. We're seeing some of the like-for-like sales for the Nick Scali branded store thing up something like 19% like for like. So we're getting really good traction there. And they're also saying that the best-selling products in Australia are similar to the same best-selling products in the UK, which means there's no difference in consumer taste or preferences for sofas. So we think that's a really good opportunity. 

The only thing we can't get away from is the macro headwinds for a retailer like Nick Scali. Furniture is always going to be quite cyclical, and we saw in the second half it's declining written sales orders. The market's got flat for FY27 and we think there's downside risk because we're only just seeing the start of the weakness in the housing market. So that continues on and we could well see downgrades in earnings in the near term for Nick Scali.

So that's sort of our caution on Nick Scali, really just on the short to medium term issues on earnings rather than the long-term management ability.

Tom Stelzer: Sean, Joe said it there - the UK expansion's been pretty positive, pretty successful, challenging consumer environment though elsewhere. Are you a buy, hold or sell a Nick Scali?

Sean Roger (BUY): I’m a buy on Nick Scali. I think it's a high quality retail and they've proven over a long period of time that through cycles they can deliver strong growth. I think Anthony Scali is an excellent manager of that business, very tight on costs, always on the money from a product perspective and has shown through previous cycles that they make smart decisions, whether it's buying competitors like they bought Plush or putting the foot down and taking market share when times are tough. 

I think history sort of suggests that the way they run the business through the low end of the cycle means they come out the other side in a stronger position. So it's one we've always liked along the journey. I think clearly in the short term it's challenging from an operating conditions perspective. They're right in the eye of the storm in terms of selling big ticket items into a consumer that's impacted by housing sentiment.

So there's no shying away from that. But to the point, I think over time they have proven that they come out of these periods in pretty good shape. The UK, as Justin mentioned, I think is really getting some runs on the board and will be a value and an earnings driver over time. So stepping back, I think net cash balance sheet, you've got a really good management team and the valuations come back to a level where we think that we're being compensated for taking on some of that short-term earnings risk to buy.

Guest picks

Tom Stelzer: We've also asked our guests for their stock pick for the best management team on the ASX. Sean, I'll come back to you. What's your pick?

1 - Aspen Group (ASX: APZ) - Sean's pick

Sean Roger (BUY): I'm going to say Aspen Property Group. For those who don't know, it's an owner, developer and operator of accommodation assets targeted primarily at the affordable end. The two things we really like about the business firstly is, as I just mentioned, they are solely focused on servicing that affordable price point, which is for the rental property sort of sub for $5,500 per week and for the land lease sales around that sort of $500,000 mark. And the reason we like that is firstly, we think it's less competitive than the high price points. 

But secondly, from a resiliency perspective, it's a massively under-supplied part of the market. So we think there's a real sort of growth runway there and some structural tailwinds. The second thing is the management team. I think they're incredibly disciplined and have proven that over a long period of time and through multiple sort of asset purchases.

And we think for this business model, that's incredibly important. Being disciplined around the price you pay for the land, especially when you're serving a lower price point, is key to underwriting those development margins. So we think the combination of those two things puts a business in really good shape. Again, it is impacted by, I guess the sentiment towards the property market. 

One thing I think that holds them in pretty good stead is they do have a big chunk of their business, which is apartment rentals and land lease rentals, which I think given what we're seeing with government policy, we're likely to see less supply and ultimately see rental rates increase. So they'll be the beneficiary of that. And on the development side, no doubt if there's some softness, they may see their sales slow, but they've got an ever expanding, I guess pipeline of approved sites.

So I think '27, '28, '29, they're really well placed to continue delivering the strong earnings growth they have been. And for the multiple trades that we think it looks good.

2 - Aristocrat Leisure (ASX: ALL) - Joseph's pick 

Joseph Koh: We're going with Aristocrat. There are not that many companies in Australia that have been able to go overseas and do well, and not just do well, but dominate their competitors. And Aristocrat has done that in the US. 

We were talking about Wesfarmers just now with Bunnings and they try to go to the UK and despite really good operational management, they just couldn't crack the UK market. Aristocrat have gone to the US and they now dominate. They're about twice the size of the nearest competitors where it's Light & Wonder or IGT/GTech. They continue to reinvest in their business. So they spend about twice the amount of R&D or what they call D&D - design and development - on new games relative to the competitors. 

And one of the things we like about quality companies is that they can compound their competitive advantages over time. And that means when you reinvest your stronger cash flow and superior margins into new product, you tend to get a very good flywheel.

And so every time we see the survey of best performing slot machines, it's usually Aristocrat that's always dominating that survey. And so we're seeing ongoing growth there in the US. There's some defensive qualities as well because as a supply to casinos, they're somewhat insulated from a huge economic downturn. They will have some impact, but there is always a need for casinos to invest in the gaming floor to generate revenues even in a tough environment. 

And as they continue to invest, they get the better premium games and that always attracts better margins for them. Also, we've seen a really good capital management by Aristocrat. They've been very disciplined around M&A. So they've done M&A well over the last number of years and they've returned excess cash flows to shareholders, whether it's through dividends or share buybacks. We're going through one at the moment.

So that discipline of management, not squandering the really strong cash flows on poor acquisitions, which we've seen unfortunately in some other large cap names in the last few years.

Tom Stelzer: That's it for today. Thanks to Sean and thanks to Joe and thanks for watching. For more Buy Hold Sell, make sure to check out our YouTube channel.