Buy Hold Sell: Which ASX stocks win as oil prices fall? (plus 2 surprise picks)

Just weeks ago, markets were pricing in the risk of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, with oil surging as investors feared disruptions to global supply. Today, much of that geopolitical risk premium has unwound. Brent crude has retreated to around its pre-war levels following a US-Iran peace agreement, even as fresh flare-ups serve as a reminder that the situation remains far from settled.

Whether the recent pullback in oil proves temporary or not, investors are already asking the next question: who stands to benefit? The obvious winners are businesses with large fuel bills. But lower oil prices can ripple through the economy in unexpected ways, easing input costs and lifting consumer spending. 

Joining Livewire’s Anna Dadic are Henry Jennings from Marcus Today and Michael Wayne from Medallion Financial, to debate four stocks that could be lesser-known beneficiaries of the recent retreat in oil prices, examining whether they offer compelling exposure to cheaper energy, or whether the market has already priced in the upside. 

We also asked each guest to nominate a stock they see as an unexpected winner from the fall in oil prices.

This episode was filmed Wednesday 24th June, 2026.

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Edited transcript

Anna Dadic: Hello and welcome to Livewire's Buy Hold Sell. My name is Anna Dadic. The geopolitical landscape has shifted again. Following the recent US-Iran peace deal, crude oil prices have taken a sharp dive. Today we're looking at the beneficiaries of falling oil prices — some of these are obvious and some are less so. To discuss, I'm joined by Michael Wayne from Medallion Financial and Henry Jennings from Marcus Today to give us their verdict on four stocks. I've also asked them to bring and share a stock pick of their own. Firstly, Henry, geopolitical catalysts can move markets fast, but they can also reverse just as fast. How do you invest around that?

Henry Jennings: Anna, there is an old joke and I'll use it again — how do porcupines make love? Carefully. Because that's what you've got to do in this market. It's not an easy market, and geopolitics aside — because let's face it, that could change at the stroke of a Sharpie pen or a tweet on Truth Social — I think you almost have to tune out from that and focus on the one thing that is very susceptible to geopolitics right now, which is the oil price. So as long as you keep an eye on the oil price and it's doing nothing, that's a good thing and we can get on with the rest of the world.

It is a hard market to negotiate. What we have seen is momentum trading has just got out of control. I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing — or maybe it's a sign that we're getting a little bit frothy and toppy — but when you see South Korea's market fall 10% in a day and then rally 10% in a day, that is extraordinary. Stocks do that, but a big industrialised country seeing a 10% move in their index in a day? That's crackers. There are just a lot of things out there at the moment where you're scratching your head thinking, "I've kind of seen this before and it didn't end well" — but it can go on for a lot longer than you think. There's still a lot of money on the table. You've got to be in the game to play.

Anna Dadic: Michael, the obvious trade when oil falls is airlines — but is the obvious trade already priced in, and where can investors look for less obvious leverage?

Michael Wayne: I think you look at the response in share prices and you can see the recovery has already been priced in off the back of lower oil price expectations. In fact, the market never really fully baked in higher oil prices. If you looked out the futures curve, the expectation was that a deal would get done pretty quickly at some point and things would get back to a more normalised set of circumstances. So beyond that initial shock, things were pretty much in recovery mode from there.

Obviously airlines is the first thing people jump to as a logical conclusion, but there are other things — freight and forwarding, courier services. And then you can get down to retail companies and some more consumer discretionary type businesses as well. You can even draw a longer bow: lower oil prices, lower inflationary pressures, lower interest rates — and that might well be good for your growth stocks or even your small caps. So there are a few different ways to benefit from a moderating oil environment, so long as it stays moderating and doesn't start moving the other way. But that's essentially where things are at.

Kelsian Group (ASX: KLS) 

Anna Dadic: Moving on from airlines and onto buses — Kelsian, Australia's largest private provider of public transport. The fuel story is pretty obvious with this one. Michael, I'll stay with you. What's your call?

Michael Wayne: (HOLD) On this one, I'm going to go a hold. The business is much more simplified than it used to be — they essentially got rid of their tourism-linked assets and are now focusing primarily on large government contracts, which provides pretty reliable income. Even the oil aspect for this business I think is overblown to a large extent, given that many of their contracts with government factor in for these kinds of things. So although there might be a short-term impact where they see decreased margins and incur the brunt of increased fuel costs, when the reset comes at the end of each half year, they actually get reimbursed for that.

It's not a hugely exciting company. They are doing some interesting things with their expansion into the US, but by and large these are stable, steady government contracts that will tick up over time along with inflation and population growth. Beyond that, I don't think it's an out-and-out growth business. So I'm going to go a hold.

Anna Dadic: Henry, are you climbing aboard the bus?

Henry Jennings: (BUY) All aboard! It's an interesting company, isn't it? They did a very clean exit of their tourism business — Captain Cook Cruises and all that stuff — which was good. It has simplified the company in that it is now pretty much a government contractor running buses. And as Michael says, they've got contracts that are really immune from CPI — they actually benefit from higher CPI in some respects, including in petrol prices. So that is a positive.

The other interesting thing is their exposure to the US with All Aboard America and the coach line — that's like the Greyhound bus system. We've got the World Cup at the moment, so there must be plenty of people criss-crossing the US by bus transport. Maybe they can't fly for whatever reason. That gives them a bit of a boost, and it's holiday season as well. Fuel prices on those ticket prices aren't locked into contracts — they can raise them when fuel prices are up, but they can also leave them sticky when fuel prices drop. So I think that's a bit of a driver.

I believe the CEO has actually moved to the US, and there is a real focus there. Getting out of the tourism business, which was capital-intensive, and getting into the US coach business, which has some growth with the US economy — I think that was a smart move. Buses aren't the most exciting business, but you can make money out of them and they do run them relatively well. So it's a modest buy for me.

Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD) 

Anna Dadic: Next stop, Elders. Agriculture has been particularly vulnerable with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Henry, sticking with you — does cheaper fertiliser mean more fertile ground for investors?

Henry Jennings: (BUY) You'd like to think so. Elders has been a bit of a disaster for a long time. We have got a new CEO coming in. The fertiliser side of things is very interesting. There are obviously windows for planting and they are at the mercy of the heavens, so there is that.

But they've got to a price where you look at it and think it doesn't take much for things to go right for it to go from five bucks back to seven. The market wants to believe — its hopes have been dashed so many times, but it still, stupidly, wants to believe. I suspect there's a bit of tax-loss selling happening at the moment. A new CEO coming in should get a new broom through the business. So I think it's got potential upside. It's a bit of a weird oil-related stock because of the fertiliser side of things, but at these levels, I'm going to call it a buy.

Anna Dadic: Michael, is Elders in a position to harvest some gains?

Michael Wayne: (SELL) Historically, when Elders has been down and out and everyone's hated it, that's been the time to buy. It was probably 15 years ago now where it was pretty much on death's door — they managed to get the thing humming — but it's a complex business and there are so many different moving parts. It's hard to get everything moving in the right direction at the same time.

On one hand, higher fertiliser prices could be positive for them, but what obviously happens is farmers just reduce the volume and don't capture the full benefits. It's the same with higher oil prices — farmers are doing it a little bit more tough with fuel purchases, so they might be less likely to buy fertiliser or be as intense with farm activities. There are just so many complexities to a company like this.

What concerns me is that broadly speaking, it's been a pretty productive environment the last few years for ag businesses and ag land — yet this business has struggled even when conditions have been somewhat favourable. The long-term CEO has stood down, the new CEO has come in, and there's always a risk they come in, clean the decks, and start fresh. So there could be more bad news before the good news starts coming through. I'm going to go sell on Elders, despite the fact that it hasn't been that loved.

Orica (ASX: ORI) 

Anna Dadic: Moving on now to Orica — they manufacture commercial explosives for mining. Does cheaper oil make this a buy, Henry?

Henry Jennings: (BUY) That's a good question. It's a long bow, isn't it? Cheaper oil will in theory have an impact on the mining sector. It costs money — it costs oil, diesel, fuel — to get resources out of the ground. Those trucks don't run on solar, unfortunately. So in that respect, yes. And we are in the midst of — I was going to say a mining boom, but some days it feels like a boom and other days it feels like a bust. It's six of one and half a dozen the other. But certainly with the gold price where it is, gold companies are still doing very well. Iron ore and copper companies are still doing very well, still spending money on explosives. And coal has obviously come back into favour as well because of what's happened with the oil price and the situation over Iran.

So I think it's a modest buy. I'm not massively convicted on this one, but you can see some drivers. The US business on the explosives side is interesting. They've got some specialty chemical businesses within that as well, and they've just made some acquisitions there. So that helps them in terms of producing other minerals, gold extraction, et cetera. It's a quality company, but it hasn't done an awful lot recently — so maybe it's not going to do an awful lot in the future. But I think it's a modest buy. Not an explosive buy.

Anna Dadic: Michael, what about you?

Michael Wayne: (HOLD) Looking at it simply — it's towards the top end of its long-term price range, and the valuation is the highest it's been in some time. This is a company that really boomed during the mining boom, throughout the GFC and the years after off the back of the Chinese-led mining boom — and it's basically been going sideways ever since, never fully recovering from the slowdown in mining investment.

It's a dominant player in the explosives space. It gets linked to fertiliser because of the ammonium nitrate, which is a big input, and that's been caught up recently because a lot of that product passes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf. The company has pivoted somewhat towards being more of a mining services and software business, and that is potentially the reason for the re-rating. You've seen the PE expand and the price increase in the short term — but that part of the business is still only a fraction of revenue. It's growing quickly and hopefully they can continue to maintain that.

For me, I just see this as an older-world type business. It's a dominant player in its field, it's had fairly favourable conditions for the last 15 to 20 years, yet the share price is roughly where it was 20 years ago. I'm going to go a hold. I can't get overly excited that it's suddenly going to break out to new highs — but if they can get more traction with their broadening into more of a high-margin mining services business, then it's potentially worth a closer look.

Super Retail Group (ASX: SUL) 

Anna Dadic: Now onto our final stock — Super Retail Group. Michael, when it's cheaper to fill up the tank, the natural inclination is road trips, camping. Does the increase in consumer confidence make this a buy for you?

Michael Wayne: (HOLD) There'll be a temporary increase in confidence off the back of a resolution in Iran, you would think. However, people are being confronted with interest rate increases and a budget that's been deemed unfavourable by a lot of people. Super Retail has four key businesses — Supercheap Auto, Rebel Sport, Macpac, and BCF. Macpac and BCF are outdoor-focused, and when sentiment was crushed, those businesses struggled. Rebel Sport has its own competitive issues — Super Retail is very much an old-fashioned, go-into-the-shop, feel-it, touch-it, then-buy-it business, with the vast majority of revenues still in-store.

Supercheap Auto is probably the shining light — it has been doing well in a tough environment and has historically been a very good quality retailer. You would think that once conditions turn, they are well positioned to capitalise on that. The question is whether those conditions are forthcoming anytime soon, and I'm a bit unsure about that. So I'm willing to go a hold — the valuation on offer is fairly attractive after pulling back so far, and the business is operationally holding its own. But I'm not confident enough there's going to be the impetus for a turnaround given the broader macro isn't set up fantastically for them.

Anna Dadic: Henry, how do you feel about it?

Henry Jennings: It's had a bit of a bounce off its lows. They've had some corporate governance issues which I don't think have gone away yet — they're still yet to be resolved, so that's obviously hanging over the market. But they have got some good brands — Rebel Sport is a good brand, BCF is a good brand, Macpac is a quality brand, and Supercheap Auto is another good brand.

It puzzles me, actually. I shop at Rebel every now and then and it should be getting a boost from the World Cup — we've got a month of glorious football. Someone should be out there flogging footballs and jerseys. If the Socceroos do well, that's going to help sales at Rebel. But what puzzles me is that I've signed up as a member and I don't ever remember getting an email from them saying, "come in and buy a soccer shirt." I get them from Supercheap Auto. I don't get them from BCF even though I've bought stuff from there. They're missing a trick somewhere — I get an email twice a day from Anaconda, which is almost too much.

Anna Dadic: A sell on this basis alone!

Henry Jennings: You just see that they could harness a lot more from their loyalty base. Rebel Sport is such a great brand. It's been around forever. Where else do you go for sports? It's the Bunnings of football shirts and soccer boots. They could do more, but they're clearly not doing more right now. Consumer sentiment and cost-of-living pressures are headwinds. But you just think — you're missing a trick here, guys. They're clearly just not harnessing the brand power they've got. That is a fail — but it's also an opportunity. Maybe they've been a bit distracted by some of the issues at the company, but if they can get their act together and start promoting the three core businesses, which have great names in Australia — well, mind you, Barbecues Galore went bust, so riddle me that one, Batman.

Anna Dadic: So was that a hold?

Henry Jennings: (HOLD) Yeah, after all that — that was a hold.

Guest picks

Anna Dadic: Moving on now to our guest picks. As always, we've asked our guests to bring a stock pick of their own. Henry, I'll stay with you. What's your pick for today? 

Smart Parking (ASX: SPZ) 

Henry Jennings: You did ask a tricky question because it's a stock that's way out there, left field. I picked Smart Parking — which is not really oil-related, but it is in a way, because more people out there means more people parking. These guys have pushed into international markets — the US, Switzerland, the UK — and they basically manage car parks. They're getting better at bad debt management and better at automatic number plate recognition technology, the ANPR, which is coming in to replace the old ticket systems. So it's more left field than anything else — it's way off Broadway, this one — but it has suffered, and at the moment we're in tax-loss time, so maybe it's suffered too much. Maybe there's a bit of a pop in it once we get to 1 July.

It's just an interesting business with a lot of potential. They're obviously investing heavily in new technology overseas and making a big push internationally — yet to see the full benefits of that — but they've got a strong balance sheet. It's interesting at these levels. So I'm pushing that one as a buy.

CTI Logistics (ASX: CLX) 

Anna Dadic: Michael, what's your pick?

Michael Wayne: CTI Logistics — CLX is the code. I had to scrounge around to find something that was a non-obvious beneficiary of the decline in oil costs — it was a difficult thing. We do hold this one in our managed fund as a very small position. It's around a $180-200 million market cap, so it's quite small. It's a logistics business based out of WA — freight forwarding and courier services generate probably 55 to 60% of revenue, warehousing and logistics optimisation is around 20 to 30%, and then they've got 10 to 15% from property assets that generate some rent.

It's an old-fashioned business on an old-fashioned multiple — 19 times earnings, paying a 5 to 6% dividend yield, and very tightly held. So it's not that liquid, although it does trade a few hundred thousand dollars a day. The CEO and chairman has been in that position for 50-plus years. Given that they are so heavily focused on WA — a state that is actually doing quite well right now — the mining industry is bubbling along nicely. Lower fuel prices help a business like this, not only with the obvious fuel cost savings, but also through the broader benefits flowing to the mining sector. It's not the most exciting thing in the world, but it's well priced, pays a good dividend yield, and has been consistently growing earnings over time. Probably not many people have heard of it — one worth adding to the watch list.

Anna Dadic: That wraps it up. Thank you to Michael and Henry for joining us today, and thanks for watching Buy Hold Sell.