Christmas Seasonality for Miners Revisited

The resources sector follows a well-trodden path during the holiday period. There has been no exception over the last 15 years to the rise in the small resources share price index over the three weeks after Christmas. The effect has been evident through a diverse range of market conditions including the relatively stable price environment prior to 2003, the rapid cyclical ascent in 2005-07 and the four years of negative returns between 2010 and 2014. The most pronounced of the seasonally strong price effects occurred in 2008. The unusual seasonal strength which followed an unusually weak 2008 market outcome helped launch the 2009 price recovery. The market is finishing 2015 in a similar position as in 2008 with the lowest prices since 2003. Two questions arise. Will the Christmas seasonal effect persist for a sixteenth consecutive year? If so, will the effect be the launching pad for a cyclical recovery in prices or will the sellers regain their ascendancy in the second half of January?