Darko Kuzmanovic: The best setup I’ve seen in 40 years

This could be the best setup for natural resources in more than 40 years.

That was the clear message from Darko Kuzmanovic, Portfolio Manager at Janus Henderson, during a recent webinar on the outlook for global natural resources. A veteran of more than four decades navigating commodity cycles, Kuzmanovic combines deep market experience with a background as a metallurgical engineer, giving him insight into both the science within the mine and the capital dynamics within the company.

His conviction follows a period of exceptional returns. The Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources strategy delivered circa 45% in 2025, with metals and mining in particular driving much of that performance, up 55%. Yet Kuzmanovic argues the real story is not what has happened, but what is still to come.

“I’d say the setup at the moment is probably the best that I’ve ever seen in my time in the markets.”

In his view, deglobalisation, electrification, AI-driven energy demand and chronic underinvestment are converging to create a structural cycle that is only just beginning.

Deglobalisation and the new supply chain build

Kuzmanovic argues that today’s opportunity is not China-led industrialisation 2.0, but a Western-led rebuild of critical supply chains.

He describes the shift bluntly: 

“What we’re seeing today is the emergence of an environment that we think will be positive for the resource sector driven by the rest of the world, not just China.”

Deglobalisation sits at the heart of his thesis. Western economies are attempting to reduce reliance on China for critical raw materials and processing capacity. The problem is that alternative supply chains “don’t exist today in any meaningful way” and “have to be constructed and they need money and time.”

That construction process is commodity-intensive. New battery plants, refineries, magnet facilities and processing capacity require large-scale investment in mining, smelting and refining outside China.

Kuzmanovic believes this will take “more than a decade to execute properly and efficiently” and will require sustained government support.

In his framework, this is the foundation of a potential multi-year supercycle.

AI, energy and the nuclear renaissance

One of the most powerful emerging demand drivers, in his view, is AI and data centre growth.

He describes the AI phenomenon as “very energy intensive” and points to early signs of what he calls a nuclear renaissance. “We’re at the start of a nuclear renaissance where new power stations are being built and will accelerate in their build globally, which will drive demand for uranium and nuclear fuel.”

The scale of associated infrastructure spend is striking. 

“US utilities that are involved in supplying energy to data centres are thinking that together with data centres and power, there’s something like a trillion dollars of investment that’s likely to take place between now and probably the next three to four years.”

Beyond uranium, that build-out is copper, steel, aluminium and lithium intensive.

Lithium’s reset and the electrification flywheel

Nowhere is that dynamic clearer than in lithium.

After oversupply in 2022 and 2023 pushed prices sharply lower, Kuzmanovic argues the weakness was not demand-driven. It was a wave of new capacity that “swamped the demand equation.”

Once inventories were absorbed, the structural demand story reasserted itself. “The underlying demand was so strong that the inventories declined… and the price signal was that prices increased materially.”

The next leg may prove even more significant. Growth in battery energy storage systems is accelerating alongside EV adoption. By some forecasts, battery demand for energy storage could equal EV demand by 2030, a shift that materially changes the long-term lithium equation.

The same electrification logic underpins copper and rare earths. Rare earth magnets are critical for semiconductors, EVs and defence applications, and strategic offtake agreements and government-backed price floors are reshaping the economics of the sector.

Gold, geopolitics and currency fragmentation

Gold’s rally has surprised many, but Kuzmanovic frames it as part of a broader monetary shift.

He describes gold as “a bipolar metal” that is either a commodity or a store of value. The latter dominates today. Central banks, particularly in developing economies, have been major buyers.

He notes a structural shift in global reserves: 

“In 2000, the US dollar represented something like 61% of all foreign reserves… Today, it’s less than 40%.”

In his view, geopolitical fragmentation, sanctions and reserve diversification are driving sustained demand for gold. Importantly, he argues that gold equities are not fully pricing in current bullion levels, leaving scope for earnings and valuation upgrades.

Inflation hedge and portfolio positioning

Kuzmanovic believes the coming investment wave will itself be inflationary. Building new mines, refineries, battery plants, and nuclear capacity requires labour, materials, and capital, all of which increase costs.

He framed resources as both cyclical beneficiaries and structural hedges. 

“We think it’s a great inflation hedge at an interesting point in time in the cycle. And we think that cycle has just commenced.”

Within portfolios, that conviction has translated into a decisive tilt toward metals and mining over agriculture and energy, where supply dynamics are more balanced.

Step back from the quarterly volatility and the argument becomes clearer. If deglobalisation, electrification and energy security drive a decade-long rebuild of industrial capacity, then natural resources sit at the centre of that transition. 

In Kuzmanovic’s view, this is not about chasing momentum. It is about positioning early in what he believes could be the strongest setup he has seen in more than four decades in the markets.

Managed Fund

Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources

Global Shares

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