“Do not disappoint” – the golden rule driving this reporting season

This interview was recorded 14 August, 2025

“When you’re out there in a minefield and you step on a landmine, it can be nasty,” says Henry Jennings, recalling one of his golden rules for reporting season - stay calm, whatever the explosion.

Henry and I learned that lesson together, many moons ago, wading through the chaos of earnings results as analysts-in-arms. He taught me never to get too high on a win or too low on a miss,  wisdom that rings just as true today.

With reporting season at full tilt, I caught up with Henry to talk big themes so far, why guidance is king, the volatility punishing both heroes and villains, and his famed ‘holy trinity’ of capital management. 

We also ran the ruler over standout results and the ones to watch as the season barrels on. Watch the video above for the full Henry experience, or read a summary below. 

INTERVIEW SUMMARY

Guidance is everything

Henry sees “do not disappoint” as the defining theme so far, with guidance taking centre stage. Many companies have delivered results roughly in line with expectations, aided by earlier “confessions” that softened the market. 

Index-level impact has been limited, though volatility in individual stocks remains high. The CBA sell-off highlighted the dangers of being “priced for growth” without delivering it, while Westpac benefited from more modest expectations.

Volatility cuts both ways

Australian reporting season has mirrored the US in punishing misses and rewarding beats. 

“If you disappoint and you start in that downgrade cycle, that does tend to continue,” Henry says. 

He cites Bravura’s 18% plunge versus Life360’s surging share price after strong numbers. Post-result bounces, like JB Hi-Fi’s, can be fleeting as broker downgrades catch up. His advice: avoid knee-jerk reactions and distinguish between temporary noise and genuine problems.

Cautious optimism and the ‘holy trinity’

Despite global uncertainty, Henry is “quite surprised by the lack of negativity” in outlook statements. 

He attributes this partly to expectations of lower interest rates. Standouts include JB Hi-Fi’s $1 special dividend, Telstra’s dividend uplift and buyback extension, and Evolution Mining’s disciplined capital return. 

Henry’s “holy trinity” – increased dividends, specials, and buybacks – continues to support the market, but he warns there’s still more reporting ahead, including “super Thursday” with results overload.

Company highlights and opportunities

Life360’s (ASX: 360) momentum is fuelled by its expanding ecosystem into pets, elderly care, and weather alerts, making it “one of those core digital things families rely on.” 

JB Hi-Fi (ASX: JBH) remains Henry’s top retail pick, with AI-related device upgrades and interest rate tailwinds in its favour. 

Seven Group’s (ASX: SGH) quality management offsets guidance caution, while Commonwealth Bank's (ASX: CBA) lofty valuation was “priced to unreality,” prompting rotation into peers like Westpac (ASX: WBC) and CSL Limited (ASX: CSL). 

Looking ahead, Henry’s watching CSL, NAB, Zip, and Telex Pharmaceuticals for pivotal updates. His parting advice: 

“Take a breath, read through the results, make a calm assessment”

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