Forecasters' views of European growth are anchored in an increasingly pessimistic view of its potential
John Robertson
PortfolioDirect
Forecasters' views of European growth are anchored in an increasingly pessimistic view of its potential. The economic forecasters surveyed regularly by the European Central Bank to discern their views about the growth prospects of the Euro region have become slightly more optimistic about the near term outlook but do not expect the rate of growth in the coming year to significantly exceed 1%. In the September quarter survey, forecasters were expecting GDP growth of 1.3% in the year ahead. The chart shows the changing view of forecasters since 1999 about near term growth prospects. The shorter term forecasts have risen within a longer term reappraisal of European growth potential. Over the coming five years, forecasters expect growth to rise to 1.8%. In 2001, respondents to the same survey said they expected annual long term growth rates to reach 2.7%.
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John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business strategist and investment market professional for over 30 years after starting his career as a Commonwealth Treasury economist in Canberra. Since being Australia's top-rated commodities analyst and chief economist at one of Australia' leading stockbroking firms, he has advised companies across the mining, consumer products, IT and biotech sectors on their equity market relations. He leads the firm's investment evaluation and security structuring activities on behalf of the Australian Small Scale Offerings Board (ASSOB), the world's first equity 'crowdfunding' investment platform. John Robertson discusses the interaction of mining and investment markets in his weekly 'From the Capital' column in Mining Journal.
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John Robertson
PortfolioDirect
John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business...
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