Founder-led focus meets demographic tailwinds: A decade-long runway

Penumbra's aspiration-based mechanical thrombectomy devices are building one of the most defensible competitive moats in medical technology
Jacob Celermajer

Cordis Asset Management

In the world of medical device investing, many companies are unable to strike the balance between genuine technological differentiation and attractive financial profiles. Penumbra (NYSE: PEN) - a neurovascular and peripheral vascular specialist - represents one of those rare opportunities of an innovator that we believe is positioned for years of strong compounding returns. 

A massive and growing market opportunity

Every year, 12.2 million people worldwide suffer a stroke, while over 230 million live with peripheral artery disease - conditions where blood clots can mean the difference between normal life and permanent disability. Penumbra's innovative aspiration technology offers physicians a superior alternative to traditional clot removal methods, mechanically extracting blockages while reducing patients' reliance on long-term blood-thinning medications. As global populations age, the incidence of these life-threatening clotting events continues rising, creating expanding demand for Penumbra's life-saving devices.

Technological leadership that matters

Penumbra's competitive moat rests on technological differentiation that translates into superior patient outcomes. The company's aspiration-based approach to clot removal represents a fundamental advancement over traditional stent retriever methods. You can think of it as precision suction technology, which gently but effectively removes vessel blockages while preserving delicate blood vessel walls and minimising blood loss. This critical advantage leads to faster procedures, reduced complications, and best-in-class patient recovery rates. This isn't incremental innovation; these are platform technologies that expand treatable patient populations and improve procedural success rates.

Perhaps most importantly, Penumbra's physician training programs and comprehensive support systems create switching costs that extend beyond the technology itself. Once physicians become proficient with Penumbra's techniques, they typically remain loyal customers, contributing to the company's impressive customer retention rates.

Competitive dynamics creating opportunity

The medical device industry experienced a significant shift when Stryker (NYSE: SYK) acquired Inari Medical for $4.9 billion earlier this year. Large acquisitions like this typically create periods of integration distraction, and Inari's integration into Stryker's broader portfolio appears to be following this pattern.

Our physician channel checks indicate that Inari's sales force has experienced higher turnover during the transition, while product development timelines have extended as new corporate processes are implemented. This integration period is creating opportunities for Penumbra to strengthen relationships with key accounts and win competitive procedures.

Strategic focus driving operational excellence

Last year, Penumbra made a significant decision to exit its virtual reality rehabilitation business. While others might have disagreed at the time, we viewed this as a prudent allocation of capital. By divesting a subscale, capital-intensive segment with limited synergies, management refocused entirely on their core neurovascular and peripheral vascular franchises, where they possess genuine competitive advantages.

This strategic clarity is already yielding results. R&D spending is now laser-focused on advancing market-leading positions rather than being diluted across disparate businesses. Sales force effectiveness has improved as representatives concentrate exclusively on Penumbra's core physician customer base. The streamlined organisation is demonstrating improved operational leverage, with overhead costs better controlled.

Accelerating profitability trajectory

The combination of operating in a high-growth market and winning market share from a disrupted competitor, as well as an improved cost base, is driving rapidly improved EBIT margin for the business. 

PEN financial outlook
PEN financial outlook

Operating cash flow generation is beginning to accelerate, and importantly, this growth is being funded from a net cash balance sheet position. This position allows Penumbra flexibility to weather any potential economic headwinds while maintaining growth investments. 

Founder-led vision and execution

Adam Elsesser's continued leadership as CEO provides invaluable strategic continuity in an industry where vision and execution are paramount. Founder-led companies often outperform peer groups due to longer investment horizons, willingness to invest through cycles, and deep institutional knowledge that guides strategic decision-making, and Penumbra exemplifies these three behaviours and traits.

Elsesser's background as both an engineer and business executive uniquely positions him to evaluate emerging technologies and identify acquisition opportunities that complement Penumbra's organic growth. His track record of successful product launches and market expansion demonstrates the kind of operational excellence that compounds over time.

Why Penumbra compounds from here

The combination of Penumbra's differentiated technology, leadership position in large, growing markets, and sharper operational focus creates what appears to be a powerful long-term investment case. Recent competitive dynamics further support the thesis that the company can continue to take market share and deliver strong results to create shareholder value.

The setup for multi-year compounding looks particularly attractive: expanding market opportunities driven by demographic trends, operational leverage from the streamlined business model, potential market share gains during competitors' integration periods, and a fortress balance sheet enabling opportunistic investments. For investors seeking exposure to innovative healthcare technology with clear competitive advantages, Penumbra represents a compelling opportunity to participate in the evolution of life-saving medical interventions.  

Visit our website to learn more about the Cordis Global Medical Technology Fund and our investment strategy.

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This report was prepared by Cordis Asset Management Pty Ltd ABN 68 637 078 490 a corporate authorised representative (No. 1282680) of Avenir Capital Pty Ltd ACN 150 790 355, AFSL 405469 ("Cordis")”, the investment manager for the Cordis Medical Technology Fund (“Fund”). Equity Trustees Limited (“Equity Trustees”) ABN 46 004 031 298 AFSL No. 240975, is a subsidiary of EQT Holdings Limited ABN 22 607 797 615, a publicly listed company on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX:EQT), and is the Responsible Entity of the Fund. This document has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information only, without taking account of any individual person’s investment objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of this document, no warranty is given as to its accuracy and persons relying on this information do so at their own risk. The information contained in this document is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy, nor is it investment advice. Any forwarding-looking statements or forecasts are based on reasonable assumptions, but cannot be relied upon as guarantees or representation as to what future performance will actually occur. Unless otherwise specified, the information contained in this document is current as at the date of issue and all amounts are in Australian Dollars (AUD). You should consider the Product Disclosure Statement (“PDS”) in deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold, the product. A PDS and application form is available at www.cordisam.com. Cordis and Equity Trustees do not guarantee the performance of the Fund or the repayment of the investor’s capital. To the extent permitted by law, neither Equity Trustees, Cordis, nor any of their related parties including its employees, directors, consultants, advisers, officers or authorised representatives, are liable for any loss or damage (including consequential loss or damage) arising directly or indirectly as a result of reliance placed on the contents of this report. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The unit price performance calculation methodology follows the FSC Standard No.6: Investment Option Performance - Calculation of Returns (July 2018). Total returns are calculated based on changes in net asset values, at the exit price after the deduction of fees and expenses. Due to individual circumstances, your net returns may differ from the net returns quoted above.

2 stocks mentioned

Jacob Celermajer
Portfolio Manager
Cordis Asset Management

Cordis is a boutique Australian fund manager focused on the medical technology sector. As Australia's pre-eminent medical technology investment manager, we try to understand the nuance of medtech by building our circle of competence deep rather...

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