Four headwinds for the big four banks

We haven't owned a share in a bank since we launched the Forager Australian Shares Fund more than six years ago. We won't be adding to them soon, despite the significant selloff over the past year. A few of our concerns have come to the fore. Increased capital requirements are hurting returns on equity and earnings per share (notice how much focus CBA placed on total cash earnings yesterday, ignoring the fact that it took significantly more capital to generate the 4% increase). And their dependence on offshore funding is what's having most impact on share prices in the short-term. But other potential issues lurk below the surface. Most importantly, the Australian banking sector's unprecedented exposure to one asset class - residential property. Successful banking requires diversification of risk, and our banks don't have that. And finally, I worry about UK-style class actions for the banks' financial planning arms. Yes, today's prices compensate for some of these risks. But Aussie banks are still dramatically more expensive than their international peers. For mine, they face many of the same headwinds.


2 topics

1 stock mentioned

Steve Johnson
Founder & Chief Investment Officer
Forager

Steve began Forager Funds in 2009, and now manages approximately $350m across two funds. Offering a listed Australian Shares Fund (FOR) and an unlisted International Shares Fund, Steve focuses on long-term investing in undervalued companies.

I would like to

Only to be used for sending genuine email enquiries to the Contributor. Livewire Markets Pty Ltd reserves its right to take any legal or other appropriate action in relation to misuse of this service.

Personal Information Collection Statement
Your personal information will be passed to the Contributor and/or its authorised service provider to assist the Contributor to contact you about your investment enquiry. They are required not to use your information for any other purpose. Our privacy policy explains how we store personal information and how you may access, correct or complain about the handling of personal information.

Comments

Sign In or Join Free to comment