The big four banks, Telstra, and AREITs have traditionally formed the backbone of a defensive equities portfolio, but Aaron Binsted, Portfolio Manager at Lazard Asset Management, thinks there are better opportunities elsewhere. In fact, they own neither the big banks nor Telstra in the Defensive Australian Equity Fund. He also... Show More
We were the first to publicly canvass the near-term possibility of Aussie QE (actually, it was one our investors who encouraged us to dig into this), and an increasingly intense debate on the subject has since been unleashed with CBA publishing no less than 3 reports on QE within about... Show More
After a tough 2018 the Aussie banks have bounced back thanks to a loosening of lending restrictions from APRA and a surprise election win by the Coalition. But should investors now pile back into the sector? And does the recent rate cut by the RBA herald lower funding costs for... Show More
Today I explain why ANZ was nuts not to fully cut its lending rates in May; why it will be even harder for all banks to pass along the next RBA cut, which could come in July or August; why the cash-flow impact of rate cuts could actually be negative;... Show More
It has been two months since we published our list of 10 potential surprises for 2019, which on the balance of probabilities, are unlikely to happen but shouldn’t be written off entirely. A lot has changed since then and here we provide an update plus a new surprise. 1) Australian house... Show More
Today I argue that the smartest thing RBA governor Phil Lowe could do is get the banks to cut rates for him---preserving his monetary policy ammunition for a real crisis---and show that substantial reductions in bank funding costs might enable our largest lenders to do precisely that. I also reveal... Show More
The negative effects of ALP policies on housing, SMSFs and profit margins are already impacting certain sectors of the market, such as banks, residential property developers, homebuilders and retailers. Show More
Coolabah developed the world's first compositionally-adjusted, or hedonic, regression-based index of RMBS default rates, covering all prime deals that Bloomberg reports on (you can download the paper here). We update this index monthly, and the results are enclosed below. Show More
The IMF has just run a massive stress-test on all the Aussie banks, involving a 10% fall in GDP, a 30% drop in house prices, a blow-out in credit spreads and a recession similar to what the US experienced during the GFC. In my column today I discuss their findings,... Show More
Chris Watling, CEO and Chief Market Strategist at Longview Economics, recently sounded the recession alarm on the Australian economy. We had the chance to sit down with him to explore his view, hear where he’s seen a very similar set up before, and to learn just how bearish he really... Show More