banks

The Great RMBS Short

Christopher Joye

One of our best “short” (as opposed to “long”) ideas this year has been to bet that the credit spreads on residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) would widen—reducing their price—as a function of the toxic combination of falling house prices, rising defaults, surging supply and plummeting home loan prepayment rates. (We... Show More

Banks avoid senior bail-in

Christopher Joye

APRA has released an important new consultation paper on the regulator's approach to ensuring the major banks have sufficient "Total Loss Absorbing Capacity" (or TLAC). I have written at length about this in the AFR here (or AFR subs can click here). Show More

Red or blue? What to expect from the American midterms

Fidelity International

We conducted a cross-asset scenario analysis on potential outcomes from the upcoming midterm elections in the United States. Using both a macro and a bottom-up approach, our base case was for a Democratic House of Representatives and a Republican Senate, but we also considered the possibility of a sweep in... Show More

The next Lehman moment

Aberdeen Standard Investments

In some ways the regulatory response that followed in the years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers has been a success. The days of racy balance sheets chasing outsized profits on wafer thin capital are largely over; replaced by a mantra of prudence and bread-and-butter lending to the real economy. Show More

Rise of the mega bank-bots

Christopher Joye

In the AFR I assault the notion that the big banks are going to be threatened with irrelevance, nay disintermediated, by the various threats posed by fin-techs, blockchain, bitcoin, and/or the FANGs (click on that link to read for free or AFR subs can click here). Excerpt: Show More

Hidden findings in banks' stress test

Christopher Joye

In the AFR today I reveal that the regulator's latest stress-tests of Australia's 13 largest banks show a vast improvement over the results of the 2014 stress-test when some banks' common equity tier one (CET1) capital ratios fell below 5%, triggering the conversion of their hybrid securities into equity. In... Show More

10 predictions for equities in FY19

Chris Stott

Around 12 months ago, I shared my 10 predictions for FY18. These included a peak for the housing market, struggling retail stocks, and global macroeconomic strength. It was great to see that a lot of these predictions proved true. With FY18 now over, Livewire have asked for my predictions for... Show More

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