banks

Macro
Livewire Exclusive

Chris Watling, CEO and Chief Market Strategist at Longview Economics, recently sounded the recession alarm on the Australian economy. We had the chance to sit down with him to explore his view, hear where he’s seen a very similar set up before, and to learn just how bearish he really... Show More

Christopher Joye

In my column today I write that the biggest winners from the royal commission are demonstrably the big banks while the largest losers are Australia’s mortgage brokers. Indeed, the top end of town have done an amazing job (as we predicted) convincing everyone that brokers should be made the “fall... Show More

Macro
Christopher Joye

In my column today I reveal that Australia is now officially experiencing the biggest house price falls on record in almost 40 years: home values across the five largest capital cities have officially fallen 8.3 per cent from their late 2017 peak according to the top index provider, CoreLogic, which... Show More

Christopher Joye

One of our best “short” (as opposed to “long”) ideas this year has been to bet that the credit spreads on residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) would widen—reducing their price—as a function of the toxic combination of falling house prices, rising defaults, surging supply and plummeting home loan prepayment rates. (We... Show More

Christopher Joye

This week I kick-along the debate about ScoMo's unprecedented proposal to fund $2 billion of SME loans, which I helped design, and examine how investors have whacked Aussie bank and insurer subordinated bonds as if there has been a mini-GFC as a result of a widely misinterpreted APRA discussion paper,... Show More

Michael Wayne

In the last couple of days, I have received a number of responses from clients and readers regarding our article ‘The golden age of banking is over’. Given the connection some investors have with banks shares this was to be expected and I’ll take some time in an attempt to... Show More

Michael Wayne

If you’d held banking shares for the last 30 years, and those share prices and dividends had increased in most of those years with only a few hiccups, one can understand the sentimentality and attractiveness these names carry in the minds of investors. This, of course, doesn’t make that thought... Show More

Christopher Joye

APRA has released an important new consultation paper on the regulator's approach to ensuring the major banks have sufficient "Total Loss Absorbing Capacity" (or TLAC). I have written at length about this in the AFR here (or AFR subs can click here). Show More

Christopher Joye

Today I review research that shows if Labor eliminates negative gearing and increases capital gains tax by 50%, national house prices could fall 9-12% on top of the current declines; parse new analysis from CoreLogic highlighting a spike in the share of apartment owners realising losses when they sell their... Show More

Christopher Joye

Today I explain how ScoMo (and Turnbull) saved Australia's AAA rating, and in the process also saved borrowers from a certain 10bps per annum rate hike worth over $10,400 over the life of a typical home loan. Last week S&P shocked the market, but not us, by upgrading Australia's AAA... Show More

Christopher Joye

This week I interview Tim Lawless, the head of research at Australia's largest real estate data company, CoreLogic, who says fears of a future Labor government eliminating negative gearing and doubling capital gains tax on housing (and equities) are one reason why house prices are falling as investors run for... Show More