In the AFR I assault the notion that the big banks are going to be threatened with irrelevance, nay disintermediated, by the various threats posed by fin-techs, blockchain, bitcoin, and/or the FANGs (click on that link to read for free or AFR subs can click here). Excerpt: Show More
Mortgage interest rates in Australia have increased in recent months, despite a steady cash rate. Domestic mortgage rates are heavily influenced by a combination of factors in addition to the official cash rate, and two we’re going to focus on in this paper are the banks’ exposure to domestic and... Show More
In the AFR today I reveal that the regulator's latest stress-tests of Australia's 13 largest banks show a vast improvement over the results of the 2014 stress-test when some banks' common equity tier one (CET1) capital ratios fell below 5%, triggering the conversion of their hybrid securities into equity. In... Show More
Around 12 months ago, I shared my 10 predictions for FY18. These included a peak for the housing market, struggling retail stocks, and global macroeconomic strength. It was great to see that a lot of these predictions proved true. With FY18 now over, Livewire have asked for my predictions for... Show More
In the AFR today I argue that nobody seems to have noticed that the royal commission's mandate is biased in favour of the imprudent over the parsimonious. It has spent most of its time agonising over the tiny number of "bad" borrowers who defaulted on their interest and/or principal repayments... Show More
I have a friend who is mildly wealthy but not gainfully employed. He has been a customer of the same bank for the past 40 years. Like me, he doesn’t own a house. Unlike me, he has been thinking about it. Show More
It is now passé to say the Australian equity market is becoming fully valued, led by the TIHCs — Technology, Infrastructure, Healthcare and China-facing consumer stocks — where multiples are at record levels. The bigger question is whether this is, in fact, just a natural state of affairs. Shouldn’t investors... Show More
In the AFR I write today that one of the most enduring legacies left by the royal commissionwill be more conservative and risk-averse banks. This process was already underway after the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) embraced the 2014 financial system inquiry recommendation that the banks deleverage. (direct AFR link... Show More
This week it's the Fed's bank loan officer survey and the S&P500. The US Federal Reserves's loan officer survey provides insight into bank lending standards, and can give an important cross check against the markets. So much so, that you could easily call this chart the bear market warning indicator.... Show More
In my AFR column I open-up with both barrels on vertically-integrated institutions (click on that link to read for free or AFR subs can click here for direct access). Excerpt enclosed: Show More
The rhythm of life is no different to the rhythm of economic and corporate cycles. The optimism of birth, the excitement of growing up, the cynicism arising from the compromises that come with maturity, the tumult of unfair turns and the joys of victory, all in turn impacting upon performance.... Show More
Dividend lovers: we’re witnessing a bit of a changing of the guard when it comes to the performance of ASX listed companies. Financials and in particular banks – where investors have traditionally looked for their sustainable dividend growth – are beginning to be threatened for the mantle of sustainable dividend... Show More
CommSec Advisory’s Justin Wynne speaks with Tom Piotrowski about the upcoming February reporting season, including the factors to focus on in the results of the banks & miners. Show More
Investing in safe companies like consumer staples or healthcare might feel good and help you sleep better, but you’re unlikely to earn outsized returns, says Nick Kirrage from Schroder Global Recovery Fund. He says these ‘stable’ sectors are the most expensive right now, and therefore likely to deliver the poorest... Show More
Well a fair bit happened in the past week. Amazon opened in Australia and there’s been that small issue about a banking royal commission. Graham takes us inside a presentation on behavioural finance and I’ll share some insights from one of Australia’s most respected hedge funds. Show More
In the AFR today I argue that the Royal Commission will give us even more conservative and risk-averse "narrow" or "utility" banks with fewer non-core businesses (bye bye planners, wealth, insurance, funds management and proprietary traders). As with the Austrac saga, the end game is stronger banks with lower risks... Show More
Currently, the market’s ‘story’ for the global banks is not a positive one. Increasing regulation, the threat of fines and lawsuits, and a general investor-apathy have conspired to make banks an unpopular investment. Nick Kirrage, Portfolio Manager at the Schroder Global Recovery Fund, says it’s this negative story that’s created... Show More
Are fintech start-ups coming to disrupt Australia’s Big Four Banks? Not any time soon, according to Andrew Martin from Alphinity Investment Management. Fintech start-ups have attracted a lot of attention in recent years, and some of them have been quite successful. Show More
In the AFR today I wax lyrical about what I think might be the big four banks' zero-sum, as opposed to positive-sum, game problem; the merits of putting their clients' interests first and being long-term greedy; the problems associated with business model complexity; and introduce readers to my mate "Noddy"... Show More
I found this short video from PM Capital’s CIO, Paul Moore, really thought-provoking, and have pulled out a few quotes for you to highlight some points that jumped out (with full video below). These include a warning on rising rates, calling technology crowded, and the systemic risk from ETF's... Show More