While you may not follow movements in the bank bill swap rate (BBSW), right now they are worth paying attention to. You see, rates are on the rise. And that means the funding costs for our major banks are also going up. This could force them to raise mortgage rates... Show More
Since peaking in March 2015, the share prices of our major banks have been plummeting. I fear there is more bad news ahead with the markets beginning to catch up with factors that will limit the banks’ ability to grow their mortgage books as quickly as they have in recent... Show More
The statistical release of APRA and the RBA’s credit growth data for April shows a stabilisation in the rate of overall mortgage, personal and business loan book growth at 5 per cent across the overall Australian market. By category, mortgage book growth continued to slow, increasing 6 per cent year... Show More
It would be understandable if investors with large holdings in the four major commercial banks spent much of their time reviewing the recent mixed earnings results and negative newsflow from the Royal Commission. However, the vast amount of negative media and analyst coverage makes it tempting to spend too much... Show More
Financial services have been making headlines for all the wrong reasons in recent weeks. Following Rowena “Shock and” Orr’s public shellacking of the wealth management industry, AMP Limited has since lost almost its entire board of directors, as well as a big part of the executive team. The banks were... Show More
In the midst of the Royal Commission into Misconduct in Financial Services, the major banks have released their latest half yearly results. The market headed into the reporting period with a high degree of apprehension given the public backlash emanating from the revelations coming from testimony at the Royal Commission... Show More
In Paisley 80 years ago, a woman became ill after being served ginger beer from a bottle containing a decomposing snail. The ensuing claim for damages resulted in a lengthy legal process resulting in success for the claimant. This precedent created a legal risk associated with poor quality service and... Show More
In our latest 50-page report for funds and institutional investors, Chemical Change, we’ve conducted a detailed consideration of shifts in mortgage lending standards, and the likely outcomes from these changes. Highlighted below are three immediate implications. Show More
In this video I discuss the banks. They have dominated the media headlines for all the wrong reasons recently. Given this backdrop, first half results come at a very interesting time. Show More
The increasing gap between US dollar Libor and overnight index swaps (OIS) this year is garnering much attention as it was one of the earliest signs of problems in 2007. Libor is a compilation of the interest rates that major global banks charge when lending to their peers. The OIS... Show More
After raising standard variable rates on interest only and investment property mortgages in 2016 and 2017, the big banks have recently unwound some of these increases. This has surprised some observers. So, what’s going on? Show More
Get the investor scoop on a scandal-heavy week involving Facebook, cryptocurrency, and Aussie banks. What does it all mean for investors? Show More
December 2017 reporting wrap: Fundamentals sound. The recent reporting period was generally positive with few surprises. NIM benefited from lower funding costs, deposit mix, easing liquidity drag and stable lending spreads, and the domestic retail and business banks contributed to the bulk of NIM/NIE improvements. However, non-interest income was impacted... Show More
The level of household financial stress in Australia is a key issue. This is because a significant pull-back in the financial position of households would have flow-on effects across the economy. So, the recent data released by the nation’s largest lenders provides an important reading of future trends. Show More
The global banking sector has been undervalued since the financial crisis. However central banks are starting to increase rates and this should be positive for the sector as it will enable banks to make money out of the liability side of their balance sheet. It is hard to make any... Show More
Markets have ‘baked in’ expectations that interest rates and inflation will stay low for a long time, but Simon Mawhinney, Chief Investment Officer at Allan Gray, thinks that assuming low rates for an extended period could be dangerous. Show More
Another year (almost) over, and assets have again been on a tear. All ASX sectors have performed well this year, with most generating double digit returns, consistent with global experience. The other global norm is the notable sectoral exception to this great performance; Telecommunications has been the laggard, underperforming by... Show More
We are often surprised that retail investors with whom we speak, are blissfully unaware of the risks involved in owning hybrids. ASIC and the banks have done a great job disclosing the risks, however, the message does not seem to be relayed effectively by financial intermediaries. We hope this note... Show More
The central argument of our thesis on CBA has been the stock would lose most of its premium to its major bank peers as ANZ and National Australia Bank derisked and improved their profitability by correcting their strategic mistakes (eg. divesting non-core businesses), managing their capital more efficiently and resuming... Show More
The revelations that the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) is being taken to court over alleged AUSTRAC reporting and compliance breaches will overshadow its annual result this week. The action is a civil one and a massive penalty is likely. However the monetary penalty is unlikely to affect the CBA... Show More
