Gold and bonds: a mixed few months for my awful investing strategy

We're now in month 5 of my quest to prove the conventional investing wisdom wrong, and it's been an interesting ride. 

After missing last month's update, we now have the performance for Months 3 and 4. 

Back in July, I set myself the quixotic task of trying to prove that chasing trends was a viable investing strategy and gave myself six months, and a hypothetical $10,000 portfolio, in which to do it.

As a refresher, the rules are arbitrary but simple:

For the rest of the year, my hypothetical $10,000 portfolio will go all-in on a single thematic ASX-listed ETF at the start of each month.

I'll pick the theme that I think is generating the most hype at that moment in time, based predominantly on recent performance, i.e. which thematic ETF has performed the best over the last month. But I'll also take into account certain macro factors, media coverage and market sentiment.

At the end of each month, that ETF is then sold and the capital fully reinvested in a different ETF that captures the next trending theme. 

Month 3 (September) recap

A resurgent gold price in August meant our investment for September was the the Betashares Global Gold Miners Currency Hedged ETF (ASX: MNRS), which had returned 30.5% in the previous month.

On 1 September, I purchased 519.11 units of MNRS at a price of $15.15, for a total investment of $8051.46. 

Unfortunately that gold surge proved short-lived, and MNRS ended the month at $14.65, a 3.3% decline. 

That left the portfolio sitting at $7,785.74 at the end of September.

Month 4 (October) recap

Arguably September's defining market story wasn't AI, gold or oil, but proved to be the US bond market meltdown.

As a result, the Betashares Geared Short US TR Bond CH Complex ETF (BBFD), which offers geared short exposure to 10-year US treasury bond yields and was only launched in August, returned 10.9%.

That became our next investment on 1 October, with 333.5 units purchased at a price of $23.34.

Unfortunately the trade didn't hold in October, and BBFD ended the month at a price of $21.80, a monthly return of -6.6%. 

As a result, our portfolio dropped to $7,272.03.

Next month's investment

This month has opened up an opportunity beyond the likely candidates.

iShares Global Healthcare AUD ETF (ASX: IXJ), which tracks the global healthcare sector, returned 12.03% in October. The sector rallied off the back of some strong Q3 results for US healthcare companies. 

And that makes it our investment for the month of November. On the first, I purchased 46.2 units of IXJ at a price of $157.40.

Hopefully healthcare can be the miracle cure my portfolio desperately needs.