Gold: Close to a Bottom

Jordan Eliseo

The Perth Mint

If the panic selling of the GFC, and the corollary moves in currencies over that time period are anything to go by - we're likely very close to a bottom in Aussie Dollar Gold. Whilst we don't doubt the potential for one last round of 'capitulation selling' in the precious metal, and whilst we agree with large parts of ANZ's latest report into the sector which was short-term bearish, we can't help but think any last sell-off would come hand in hand with a significant fall in the AUD. This is exactly what happened when the GFC hit, with USD gold at one point correcting by some 30% in just a matter of months. AUD gold on the other hand was largely unaffected during that sell off, and 1 year later, by early 2009, local investors were actually sitting on a 35% gain - almost all due to the currency. This weeks report looks at that period in more detail - as well as Australia's latest Capex survey, an amazing chart on US banks and more. (VIEW LINK)


Gold bull since early 2000. Have spent +20yrs working in investment analytics, research & portfolio construction. Author of two books on investing in gold and the causes of the GFC. Lover of markets, competition & technology

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