Gold Price Historical Repetition

John Robertson


The longer term history of U.S. dollar gold prices shows three distinct phases over the past 50 years. There have been two periods (1976-1980 and 2002-2011) in which prices have risen by around 500% and a third intervening period lasting some 20 years in which prices moved little.  Each of the two periods in which the gold price moved so dramatically coincided with significant shifts in the global distribution of wealth and dramatic changes in a range of relative asset prices. The evidence emerging presently suggests a lengthy period of moderation in wealth accumulation and relative price movements.   A reasonable conclusion against this background is that there will be little change in the gold price, as in the 1980s, for a lengthy period of time after it settles at a new more stable level.

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John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business...


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