We were short Woolworths before and blogged about it earlier this year. We are short today - avoid the stock. Our 2016/2017 scenario expects that the company will be forced to slash earnings and dividends, perhaps even with a capital raising, which no-one is talking about. Yet. They are downgrading their forecasts faster than Tesco's were at the similar time, suggesting the situation is worse than Tesco's. That stock fell 63% over those 4 years and equates to WOW at $14. Seem ridiculous? So did the idea of them downgrading earnings by 25% a quarter into the year. The off balance sheet leverage from operating leases is huge. Use any Masters sale rally as a chance to short more, its good for only 10% our numbers, even if the stock rallies more than that. A "fixed" story sees the business worth $30 max, representing an asymmetric trade. Read here for the full (VIEW LINK)

Patrick Poke

“I never read annual reports from front to back, as that’s the order that the company wants you to. I always read them from back to front, as that’s the order in which things are hidden." - Brilliant! I love it.