Growth, housing humiliate RBA

Christopher Joye

Coolabah Capital

In The AFR I argue that the recent GDP growth data (+3.6% pa for the last six months) coupled with electric house price appreciation (+1.6% in May and +3.2% for the quarter, which is +13% annualised), credit growth that is running 4.5x faster than national incomes, and a declining jobless rate make a mockery of the RBA's decision to slash the cash rate to a new record low of 1.75% in May. I also provide further analysis on the ATO's game-changing tax ruling that has allowed ANZ to launch the first additional tier one capital "hybrid" overseas in 10 years, which will truncate domestic supply in a win for local retail investors; reveal that CBA's chief credit strategist concluded this week the four majors are still short $25bn-$30bn of common equity tier one (CET1) capital given his forecast that APRA will lift their minimum risk-weighted CET1 ratios to 10%; and congratulate CBA's market-leading treasury team on another intelligently executed deal that has delivered investors in the transaction---present company included---handsome capital gains. Free (VIEW LINK)

Christopher Joye
Portfolio Manager & Chief Investment Officer
Coolabah Capital

Chris co-founded Coolabah in 2011, which today runs $7 billion with a team of 33 executives focussed on generating credit alpha from mispricings across fixed-income markets. In 2019, Chris was selected as one of FE fundinfo’s Top 10 “Alpha...

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