In recent months, interest rates have been rising globally, exerting a downward gravitational pull on the value and price of most assets. It’s a trend that’s likely to play out for some time. Show More
Overnight, we have seen a rally for Treasuries and the biggest surge in major U.S stock indexes since March. We have seen the NASDAQ 100 gain 3.2%, the S&P500 gain 2.3%, and the NYSE Composite gain 1.88%. Across other asset classes, we have seen: Show More
For an entire generation of investors, the market has been underpinned by falling rates, increasing leverage, and relative geopolitical stability. But today all those tailwinds are becoming headwinds. Adrian Warner, Managing Director and CIO of Avenir Capital lays out the challenge ahead and a strategy to tackle it. Show More
There was much fanfare on the 22nd May 1994 when millionaire Japanese dentist Akihiro Kabe and co-driver Takeshi Okano approached the start of Australia’s inaugural Cannonball run in a $750,000 Ferrari F40. At the time the most expensive new Ferrari in the world, it was about to tackle Darwin to... Show More
The trend in global interest rates appears to be upwards in the foreseeable future driven largely by the US Federal Reserve’s stated interest rate normalisation strategy. Whilst the Australian economy is growing at a slower rate than the US at present and may not be as suited to rising interest... Show More
Are you the hunter? Or the hunted? Never thought about it like that when it comes to investing? Well then you are the hunted. The hunter is patient. Very patient. Always aware. Watching, calculating. Then pouncing. Fast and lethal. When I sit down with my trading coach, it is a... Show More
With rates marching higher in the US, higher risk asset classes such as emerging market equities are seeing rising volatility. As risk reprices across the market, this will cause problems for weaker companies and countries. There’s one group in particular that faces significant challenges, explains Alex Duffy, Portfolio Manager at... Show More
Making accurate predictions is hard, especially about the future. Chris Rands, Portfolio Manager at Nikko Asset Management, says that he likes to focus on demographics when trying to forecast what people will be doing in the future. Show More
Chris Rands, Portfolio Manager at Nikko Asset Management, believes that rates are unlikely to rise significantly from current levels. With debt at very high levels across the world, servicing that debt would raise major challenges, which could steady the hand of central bankers. Show More
When a young Charlie Jamieson arrived at work in London on September 11th, 2001, little did he know how much that day would affect his views on markets. At the time, he was trading US Dollar bonds from Merrill Lynch’s London office, having just left the New York office three... Show More
The global economy continues to show trending improvement in growth, especially in developed countries where we are seeing the strongest, most consistent growth since 2007. Many central banks are promising a slow but steady normalisation of interest rates. How does this impact property? Show More
I have a friend who is mildly wealthy but not gainfully employed. He has been a customer of the same bank for the past 40 years. Like me, he doesn’t own a house. Unlike me, he has been thinking about it. Show More
In this short interview, Charlie Jamieson from Jamieson Coote Bonds discusses his outlook for Australian mortgage rates, and explains the impact that the Fed is having on them. He also touches on what he expects from the RBA, and one potential driver of much tighter lending. Show More
In our first monthly letter for the year, we highlighted that 2018 was unlikely to be a ‘set and forget’ year for investment strategy. As we approach the second half of 2018, macro uncertainty and cascading geo-political risks continue to impact markets and seem likely to befriend us for the... Show More
Macquarie Infrastructure fell 41% in a single session in February, a direct result of the elephant in the room investors have overlooked, as outlined here by Charlie Jamieson from JCB. Charlie explicitly warns of the ‘train having left the station’ for a potential ‘down-the-firepole type pricing moment’ that all investors... Show More
While the global economy delivers on growth, the signs are there from the US regarding the pressure of inflation as the Fed raises rates, coupled with indications of wage pickup across the world. The RBA remains in a holding pattern on rates, and won’t move until the unemployment rate drops... Show More
September 27th, 1983. What comes to mind? What if I include the quote from Bob Hawke? “Any boss who sacks a worker for not turning up today is a bum”. If you are over 45, you will know straight away. It was the day the yacht Australia II won the... Show More
The US economic expansion has just become the second longest on record. If it continues beyond mid-2019, it will be number one. Its longevity is probably due to a mixture of circumstances, judgement and luck. The severity of the recession following the global financial crisis (GFC), coupled with the slowness... Show More
Warren Buffett recently observed that markets can quickly turn from green to red, without pausing at yellow. It was a veiled warning that when valuations are at extremes – as they are today – it doesn’t take much to trigger something serious. Show More
Most investors and economists accept that interest rates around the world have bottomed and are heading up. This matters not just for macro-traders, but will affect all investors and all asset classes. As interest rates go up, so does the cost of holding cash, which is fundamental to the value... Show More