While speculating on the future direction of interest rates, currencies, and monetary policy can generate great headlines, it often raises the question; ‘what does this mean for investors?’ Understanding the implications of the macro environment drives asset allocation decisions, which according to research by Robert Ibbotson and Paul Kaplan, accounts... Show More
The world has witnessed ultra-easy conventional and unconventional monetary policy since the GFC, but three years ago it reached a point where that policy gradually needed to be removed. But this reversal, which had managed to elevate prices across a whole range of asset classes, became too much for markets... Show More
People often ask us what investment style is Ophir Asset Management? We respond we are style agnostic, if we believe there is money to be made buying a company that is growing significantly we will invest in it. Likewise, if we believe there is an unloved company that will see... Show More
Understanding how the cycle is progressing has been especially difficult in the post-GFC years. The apparent impotence of monetary policy via its traditional credit (and inflation) creation channel contrasts with the relative strength of labour employment. Yet monetary policy has become much more important for markets, as central banks have... Show More
Someone (maybe it was Albert Einstein) once opined that: “Insanity Is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results” Show More
U.S. consumer confidence is high, unemployment is well below historical averages, while supply constraints mean that plenty of jobs are now within reach for many Americans. However, some forward indicators are showing signs of risks brewing on the horizon. Show More
January 1996. My wife was 8 months pregnant with our first child. I was a proprietary trader at Bankers Trust (had been since 1991), meaning I took macro views on interest rates and currencies. Indeed, very similar to what I do now, but with the bank’s capital rather than investors’... Show More
Excess in the Australian housing market has been widely discussed by investors and commentators for a number of years. Underpinned by cheap money, house prices have risen significantly resulting in extreme valuations (house prices are nearly 9x average incomes). Show More
I distinctly remember one investor telling me how lonely he felt undertaking the task of running his super. Alone with lots of information and no one to speak with or use as a sounding board. I’d never really thought about it until this man described the challenges of making important... Show More
2017 was a great year for well diversified investors – returns were solid (balanced super funds returned around 10%) and volatility was low. So optimism was high going into 2018 but it turned out to be anything but great for investors who saw poor returns (average balanced super funds look... Show More