September was a reasonably volatile month as the markets had to digest key meetings from the ECB, BOJ & Fed and deal with a renewed focus on the viability of Deutsche Bank, after the US Department of Justice (DOJ) put forward their opening bid on the mortgage-securities cases fines. The ECB was the first key central bank meeting and they disappointed markets as they chose not to extend the QE program another six months. The Fed managed to out-dove the markets yet again and now view interest rates as only ‘moderately accommodating’. Given how quickly their estimates of the neutral rate are falling they may well have completed the tightening cycle after only 1 hike. While the markets are now keenly awaiting a fiscal response we fear this may only be forthcoming materially in the next recession, which increasingly looks not that far away.