If we have an 'average' third quarter for gold, we should expect to see a gold price of around USD $1400oz by the time we get to October. Looking at Q3 data from 1979 to 2013, on average gold increased 5.05% through the quarter, although since 2001 it has been increasing at 6.45% over this period. The largest movement was in 1979 of 43% when the drums of war beat (the Soviets went into Afghanistan in late 79) and as part of the huge run up to the 1980 gold bubble top at USD $850oz Even last year gold bounced strongly in the Q3 period, though this was partly just a response to the huge crash to sub USD $1200oz that occurred by end June 2013 Short blog (with graph) here (VIEW LINK)
Comments
Jordan Eliseo
Hi James - yes - definitely growing momentum - in part due to lack of transparency around fix, Barclays fine, and also the fact silver fix is ending (new process expected to be announced as soon as next week i think). Gold is highly liquid with tens of billions trading per day - pricing it is no problem at all - be interesting to see what market ends up agreeing on as a replacement - but anything to improve transparency is a good thing for the gold market (or any market for that matter). cheers
James Marlay
Jordan, seems to be growing momentum and support for changes to the gold pricing fix. How quickly could something like this pass through the industry? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-07/gold-industry-seen-to-support-changes-to-benchmark-fixing.html