Jordan Eliseo

If we have an 'average' third quarter for gold, we should expect to see a gold price of around USD $1400oz by the time we get to October. Looking at Q3 data from 1979 to 2013, on average gold increased 5.05% through the quarter, although since 2001 it has been increasing at 6.45% over this period. The largest movement was in 1979 of 43% when the drums of war beat (the Soviets went into Afghanistan in late 79) and as part of the huge run up to the 1980 gold bubble top at USD $850oz Even last year gold bounced strongly in the Q3 period, though this was partly just a response to the huge crash to sub USD $1200oz that occurred by end June 2013 Short blog (with graph) here (VIEW LINK)



Comments

Please sign in to comment on this wire.

Jordan Eliseo

Hi James - yes - definitely growing momentum - in part due to lack of transparency around fix, Barclays fine, and also the fact silver fix is ending (new process expected to be announced as soon as next week i think). Gold is highly liquid with tens of billions trading per day - pricing it is no problem at all - be interesting to see what market ends up agreeing on as a replacement - but anything to improve transparency is a good thing for the gold market (or any market for that matter). cheers