Ignore the first quarter economic slump in the US. It happens every year.

Livewire News

Livewire

“We have heard this story before: The recovery gathers momentum, but then as the new year gets underway, the reported pace of growth in gross domestic product stalls. It’s happening now. It happened in the first quarter of last year. And it happened in 2010, 2011 and 2012. Indeed, the pattern of weak first-quarter growth has occurred so often that it has led some economists to ask whether there’s a problem in how the government calculates its G.D.P. numbers. The “first-quarter effect” is rather large. In a recent research note to clients, Alec Phillips of Goldman Sachs highlighted the differential, noting that since 2010, “growth in Q1 has averaged 0.6%, while growth in the rest of the year has averaged 2.9%.” CNBC’s Steve Liesman has analyzed the data, finding that since 1985 “first-quarter growth has been by far the weakest of the four, averaging just 1.87 percent while the economy has grown 2.7 percent.” (VIEW LINK)


2 topics

Livewire News
Livewire News
Livewire

Livewire News brings you a wide range of financial insights with a focus on Global Macro, Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities.

Expertise

No areas of expertise

I would like to

Only to be used for sending genuine email enquiries to the Contributor. Livewire Markets Pty Ltd reserves its right to take any legal or other appropriate action in relation to misuse of this service.

Personal Information Collection Statement
Your personal information will be passed to the Contributor and/or its authorised service provider to assist the Contributor to contact you about your investment enquiry. They are required not to use your information for any other purpose. Our privacy policy explains how we store personal information and how you may access, correct or complain about the handling of personal information.

Comments

Sign In or Join Free to comment