Inflation - easy come easy go

Callum Thomas

Topdown Charts

Late last year growth and inflation were jointly on the rebound, in global a synchronized upturn.  But lately the inflation aspect appears to be quickly deflating.  The chart below was part of a broader discussion on the global economic pulse in the latest Weekly Macro Themes report and illustrates a rapid shift.

http://https://www.livewiremarkets.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsibWVzc2FnZSI6IkJBaHBBcUZRIiwiZXhwIjpudWxsLCJwdXIiOiJibG9iX2lkIn19--3292c9f7d4ae893b5a2af9e1dd72c63b92164da7/global_PMI_price_indicator.PNG

The chart shows a global view of the prices subindexes of the PMIs - compared with the annual change in the GSCI commodity index.  Clearly the commodity rebound drove a lot of the inflation rebound.  But given still strong growth dynamics in developed economies and increasingly tighter capacity, I would say the inflation rebound was in the right direction.


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Callum Thomas
Head of Research
Topdown Charts

Callum is Head of Research at Topdown Charts. Topdown Charts is a chart-driven macro research house covering global Asset Allocation and Economics.

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