Influential Federal Reserve members are thinking only one hike this year
The US Fed’s dot plot in yesterday's FOMC statement revealed that two moves were expected by its members in 2015, but that summary masks the fact that most of the influential members are thinking only one rate hike. Indeed, seven members are expecting one hike relative to three in March, which combined with sharp downgrades to US growth suggests that the US central bank has become more dovish and I still think any rate hike this year it will be late, not early given the absence of US inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, I think that the US dollar will reignite its upward momentum in the second half of 2015 as the US Fed’s hike becomes more visible. In the end, the US Fed will not threaten the recovery or market sentiment, but I’m not sure the same can be said of ideologically driven leaders in Europe, who are seemingly more focused on politics than constructive outcomes.
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