Investment outlook: Discipline will define returns in 2026

After several years of strong returns across risk assets, the year ahead is likely to be more selective and more rewarding for disciplined investors.

Global asset markets delivered attractive returns in 2025, with Australian and US equities reaching record highs despite periods of volatility and heightened macro uncertainty . Easier financial conditions, resilient corporate earnings and improving confidence supported risk assets across most regions.

Looking ahead, MA remains cautiously optimistic. Economic growth is expected to slow rather than stall, inflation has eased materially from its prior peak, and central banks retain flexibility. For Australian investors, the backdrop is mixed but opportunity-rich, supported by population growth, a resilient labour market and a stabilising housing sector.

2026 should reward investors focused on quality assets, valuation and long-term fundamentals rather than short-term narratives.

Below is a snapshot of the firm’s views across key asset classes.

Private Credit: From allocation to interrogation

Private credit is now firmly established as a core allocation for global investors, having grown into a US$3 trillion asset class.

As the market matures, the defining question has shifted. It is no longer “Do I have exposure to private credit?” but rather “What do I own and how resilient is it?”.

Selectivity, transparency, governance and alignment are critical to understand in the asset class. In an environment where dispersion of outcomes is widening, understanding what sits “under the hood” — loan structures, capital position, underwriting standards and downside protections is critical.

The opportunity set remains attractive, but disciplined growth, not blind expansion, will define success.

Real Estate Credit: Focus on enduring value

Residential markets remain a key focus as governments respond to the nationwide housing shortage, underpinned by sustained demand and structural undersupply.

MA continues to express caution on mezzanine debt and preferred equity, while remaining constructive on senior credit secured by fundamentally sound, well-located assets with enduring value.

The emphasis is on capital stability and downside protection in a market that remains uneven.

Core Real Estate: A fragmented recovery

Australia’s commercial property market is unlikely to move in unison in 2026. Performance is expected to remain fragmented across sectors, geographies and asset quality.

• Retail strengthened through 2025, supported by resilient domestic demand and improved leasing conditions. 
• Industrial continues to attract capital, though returns are normalising as vacancy rates approach equilibrium. 
• Office remains challenged, albeit with signs of improvement in premium CBD assets.

Competition for stabilised, institutional-grade assets is expected to intensify, reinforcing the need for disciplined underwriting and deep sector expertise .

Alternative Real Estate: High-conviction themes

Alternative real estate maintained strong momentum through 2025, supported by structural tailwinds and constrained new supply.

In 2026, MA expects continued strength across social infrastructure, living and leisure subsectors. Increasingly, investors are favouring operating platforms with strong governance and the ability to drive asset-level performance and operational efficiencies.

Active management and disciplined portfolio construction remain central to unlocking long-term value.

Equities: Selectivity will matter

After three consecutive years of strong equity returns, MA expects outcomes in 2026 to be more discriminating.

While technology and AI-related stocks have led recent performance, other sectors may offer opportunities for broader-based returns. Overall valuations appear reasonable, with attractive entry points emerging in high-quality businesses for investors prepared to take a medium- to long-term view . Selectivity in stock allocation will be key.

Private Equity & Venture Capital: Liquidity and consolidation

Global technology sentiment improved through 2025, with IPO markets reopening selectively and M&A activity strengthening.

In Australia, exit activity has lagged the US, but MA believes stabilising conditions could create a more constructive backdrop for IPOs and trade sales in 2026.

The firm sees increasing opportunity in Australian lower-mid market technology and technology-enabled businesses as digital transformation continues to reshape industries.

Access the full report

The full 2026 Investment Outlook provides detailed macro commentary, asset class analysis and insights from MA Financial Group’s investment teams.