Is gold a buy here?

James Gerrish

Market Matters

Yesterday I had a chat with Peter O’Connor, Shaw’s Senior Resource Analyst and a good mate of Market Matters. He’s a very good analyst and his views often contribute to our way of thinking towards resources, although we always overlay it with our traditional MM approach!  


As we continue to write in our daily notes to subscribers,  “selling strength and buying weakness will add value in 2021” and gold certainly ticks the box of the later. I won't go into the fundamental reasons why we are bullish on gold around the $US1700 area, as it's covered very succinctly by Rocky in the above video and we share those views, but the technical picture is also supportive with silver remaining on track to make fresh multi-year highs above $US30/oz.

Newcrest Mining (NCM) $23.95.

As a stock, NCM is “in the bin” with investors after disappointing a number of times over recent years. But we believe the ship has turned and the stock is now significantly undervalued, the only question being when will the market see it our way! The chart below actually reminds me of Whitehaven Coal (WHC) which spiralled south for a few years before doubling in less than 12-months. But I don’t think NCM will recover as strongly - when fund managers do eventually decide to reweight back into Australia’s largest gold miner, they’re likely to find a dearth of sellers.

MM is bullish NCM initially targeting the $30 area

Evolution Mining (EVN) $3.95

EVN has endured its second 40% correction in two years - who says markets don’t regularly move in cycles! We believe, similar to the whole gold sector, EVN has gone from being overvalued to undervalued in less than six months. This is a characteristic we should probably all get used to in 2021. The stock is now forecast to yield more than 4% fully-franked over the next year, adding to its attraction when compared to the minuscule return on term deposits.

MM likes EVN below $4. 


Northern Star Resources (NST) $9.56

And finally, we move to NST, which has corrected almost 50%. As monies have capitulated out of gold ETFs, panic selling adds weight to our confidence in our bullish precious metals call. A panic-style stampede out of positions such as ETFs so often creates meaningful swings, both down and up. NST is another quality gold stock that, in our opinion, has fallen too far out of favour, with its particular move looking exacerbated by its meaningful presence in some ETFs.

MM likes NST under $10


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James Gerrish
Portfolio Manager
Market Matters

James is Portfolio Manager & Primary Author at Market Matters, a daily investment report with over 2500 subscribers that offers real market insight. He is also Senior Portfolio Manager within Shaw and Partners heading up a team that manages...

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