Is there really a crisis?

Marcus Padley

I saw a chart on Bloomberg which rather amused me - so I have recreated it for you in this article. It is a chart that shows the bear markets in the MSCI world index since 1990. Interestingly we can name them all (see legend on chart) and the reasons they happened including; US recession, Asian financial crisis, the tech wreck, the global financial crisis, the Greek crisis. Then there is 2016, our market is down 21% and the MSCI world index is down 13.9% but no one has a name for it, or an excuse really. What are we going to call this bear market? The commodities rout maybe. Or the Chinese growth crisis. The quantitative easing headache we had to have. Or, as Supertramp fans might call it, the “Crisis what Crisis” bear market. It’s just begging the question, is there really a crisis?

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Do we have an excuse for an Armageddon event because as Credit Suisse described it, if this is a grizzly bear market (falls 20% then falls another 20%) you need a reason. Otherwise it's just a great buying opportunity and I’ve starting taking out an option on that being the case. I’ll close it as soon as I’m wrong, but as you’ll read in the article, there are a number of reasons to suggest that there is now value in the market. The article also highlights the real problem with the market, the one thing which should spook investors, and it’s not a global growth slowdown. You can read the full article here: (VIEW LINK)


Marcus Padley

Founder of the Marcus Today share market newsletter. Marcus is a stockbroker and has been advising institutional clients and a private client base for over 35 years.

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James Marlay

Worth taking the time to read the full article in my view...

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Robert Francis

Great article!

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Patrick Poke

Great stuff, very sobering.

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