It's all about US non-farm payrolls tonight at 23:30 and the market expects a lofty 200,000 jobs will be created. The range from economists is 275,000 to 150,000 and this is about as optimistic as I have seen in a while. Last night's services ISM was slightly weaker than forecast, but the employment sub-component saw the biggest one-day increase ever (going from 47.5 to 53.6), while the ADP private payrolls (released on Tuesday) was also strong. I feel the market is probably positioned for a number closer to 220,000 so anything below 180,000 should see a reasonable USD sell-off. Saying that a good number and it could start the USD off on a much stronger longer-term rally in my opinion.
haha...there's other than luck. I have no model I use, just sense check the lead indicators and practically do the opposite..this time I think is different. I actually see a payrolls of 220,000, which is in-line with where I think market positioning is (consensus is 200,000)..interesting to see hourly earnings as well as last month was strong +0.4%.
Chris do you have personal view on the payrolls figure? I note you have been pretty spot on with the past few reports.