Modelling the Future – Trump versus Clinton

Jack Lowenstein

Ellerston Capital

With Donald Trump confirmed as the Republican Party presidential candidate, and Hilary Clinton’s position as his Democrat rival all but sown up, investor attention will shift to the implications of the presidential campaign proper on US stock markets. In doing so we will try and look a little deeper than President Obama’s reassuring comment that we should not worry about Trump’s foreign policy inexperience because he had in fact met leaders from many other countries such as Miss Sweden, Miss Argentina and Miss Azerbaijan! Alongside this, thoughts are also going to whether this year will follow the traditional pattern when investors should supposedly “Sell in May and go away”. This an adage that refers to those happy days when New York Stockbrokers would pack their families off to their holiday houses and effectively down tools themselves for most of the northern summer before normal service was resumed around Labour Day, ie the first Monday in September! Read our full blog here: (VIEW LINK) (Chart: US Equities during election cycles)


Jack Lowenstein
Joint Chief Investment Officer
Ellerston Capital

Jack co-founded Morphic Asset Management in 2012. As a stock picker Jack has invested in a variety of markets and sectors, but developed in-depth knowledge of markets in Asia-Pacific region as well as global finance and resources sectors.

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