Our indicators point to a high chance of global disinflationary recession

For many months we have been overly bearish global growth and inflation. We have had our positioning to benefit from commodity weakness and falling stock markets and it has worked well. But I think our "contrarian" views in recent months when everything was seen to be "all good" by most are becoming more mainstream. This is precisely the time when markets can unravel rather fast and benefit the portfolio which was positioned against the consensus views. Our portfolio is up 8% for January so far and investors are happy. The thing is, what has mostly led to our positive performance has been the Yuan devaluation, which has only just begun in our eyes. There is much more downside in their currency to come as they try to help their economy navigate the inevitable slowdown from the heady days of the last 20 years. Who can blame them? read more... (VIEW LINK)