Started bad, got worse: My awful investing strategy is now down 31%

If Investing 101 was an actual university course, one of the first lessons you'd learn would be 'don't chase trends'. 

Jumping from one hot trend to the next is widely considered a surefire way to burn your capital. 

But has anyone ever really tested the conventional wisdom?

One month ago, I set myself a quixotic task - try and prove that wisdom wrong by setting up a hypothetical portfolio that leans directly into the latest trend. 

As I wrote in the original wire:

The rules are arbitrary but simple.

For the rest of the year, my hypothetical $10,000 portfolio will go all-in on a single thematic ASX-listed ETF at the start of each month.

I'll pick the theme that I think is generating the most hype at that moment in time, based predominantly on recent performance, i.e. which thematic ETF has performed the best over the last month. But I'll also take into account certain macro factors, media coverage and market sentiment.

At the end of each month, that ETF is then sold and the capital fully reinvested in a different ETF that captures the next trending theme. 

We're now one month into my grand experiment, which means it's time to share an update on how we got on in the first month, and what we're investing in next. 

Month 1 recap

As I covered in the initial wire, the strategy didn't get off to a great start.

On 30 June, our hypothetical $10,000 portfolio went all-in on the Global X Semiconductor ETF (ASX: SEMI), purchasing 214.54 units at a price of $46.61.

One week in, SEMI was already down 17%. I had managed to buy in just before a broad selloff in semiconductor stocks prompted by a combination of profit-taking and market concerns that AI spending could peak sooner than expected. 

Unfortunately, things didn't improve from there. At one point, I was down 32% before a late bounce spared some of my blushes. 

As per the rules of the experiment, I sold my entire holding of SEMI on 31 July at a price of $34.73. 

It left me with $7,451 and a first-month return of -25.49%. 

Of course, it could have been worse. I could have been one of the millions of Korean investors (3% of the country's entire adult population) who were margin called after piling a little too exuberantly into leveraged AI investments.

I could have also been poor 24-year-old Leopold Aschenbrenner, whose $28 billion hedge fund similarly blew up after his own leveraged AI bet turned against him. 

Even a 438% return in the first six months of 2026 couldn’t save the former boy wonder from having to sell off the majority of his portfolio at a discount to Citadel, the hedge fund run by Ken Griffin, the mortal enemy of memestockers everywhere. 

The fund, ironically enough, was called Situational Awareness. The jokes write themselves at this point. 

At least I live to fight another day, which gets us to our next investment.

This month's investment

I may have missed it the first time around, but the markets have given me a second chance at jumping on one of 2026's hottest trades - oil.

A resumption of military strikes between the US and Iran in early July saw oil prices shoot up again from US$70 a barrel to more than US$90 a barrel by late July.

The strikes came in violation of a 60-day peace negotiation that was agreed as part of the memorandum of understanding signed in June by the US, Israel and Iran. 

As a result, the BetaShares Crude Oil Index Currency Hedged Complex ETF (ASX: OOO), which tracks the crude oil price, returned an impressive 24.33% in July. 

And that's why it's our next investment. 

On 1 August, I submitted a buy order using the portfolio's remaining $7,451 to purchase 909.77 units of OOO at a price of $8.19.

Unfortunately, just like month 1, things aren't off to a great start. 

As of 5 August, OOO has crashed from $8.27 to $7.63 after oil prices plunged 5% to US$75 a barrel, when US president Donald Trump cancelled planned strikes against Iran and hinted at a resumption of peace talks. 

Given how volatile the conflict in the Middle East remains, there's still plenty of time for my portfolio to turn things around, but my thesis is already being tested to its limits. 

I wrote in the original wire that I'd given myself a mountain to climb one week in. Unfortunately, one month in, the mountain has only gotten bigger.

What's your view?

Do you like my chances of a turnaround in month 2? Or will this be another disastrous investment?