Sydney house prices have fallen 11.1%, declining at a 17% annual rate, while Brisbane prices fall at 20% annual rate

Christopher Joye

Coolabah Capital

So there is good news and bad news. The bad news is that national house prices are falling at a record 14% annual rate based on the last three months of data from CoreLogic, with a total draw-down of 7.4% since the 5 capital city index's May 2022 high watermark. And this is before a veritable tsunami of $500 billion worth of fixed-rate home loans see their interest rates more than double from 2.0% to 2.25% to 5-6% as they switch back to variable-rate next year. Our forecast for a record Aussie house price correction of 15-25%, which we published in October last year, remains unchanged.

The epicentre of what will likely become the biggest housing crash in modern Aussie history has shifted from Sydney to Brisbane, where prices are currently falling at an incredible 20.3% annual rate (Brisbane values have already shrunk 7.7% peak-to-trough thus far). Sydney dwelling values have fallen furthest, plunging a massive 11.1% since their peak in absolute terms (okay, it is nothing like Bitcoin's savage free-fall from US$69,000 to US$15,600). Sadly for homeowners, Sydney dwelling values continue to decline at a 17% annual rate based on the past three months of price moves. 

The good news is that the pace of declines has generally slowed, although this could just reflect seasonality. The Melbourne market is faring a lot better than Sydney and Brisbane, with total losses of only 6.9% to date and a more orderly (albeit still chunky) 10.6% annualised rate of decline over the last three months. Adelaide and Perth are stronger again, experiencing very mild adjustments of just 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively, since their recent peak. 

The second chart below highlights the positive news. It shows the change in the pace of three-month annualised house price declines, which have slowed, though they still remain sharply negative (observe how most lines are rising or stabilising). 

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Christopher Joye
Portfolio Manager & Chief Investment Officer
Coolabah Capital

Chris co-founded Coolabah in 2011, which today runs over $8 billion with a team of 40 executives focussed on generating credit alpha from mispricings across fixed-income markets. In 2019, Chris was selected as one of FE fundinfo’s Top 10 “Alpha...

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