Today I argue that the smartest thing RBA governor Phil Lowe could do is get the banks to cut rates for him---preserving his monetary policy ammunition for a real crisis---and show that substantial reductions in bank funding costs might enable our largest lenders to do precisely that. I also reveal... Show More
This week the RBA quietly admitted that low interest rates have played a big part in the rise in Australian house prices. This comes after years of denying the obvious. I say quietly admitted as it came in a “research discussion paper” on its website written by two of its... Show More
In my column today I write "if only the RBA had its brilliant new research on the impact of interest rates on house prices back in 2013 when I warned them that their easy money policy would blow a huge housing bubble, as it subsequently did" (click on that link... Show More
Coolabah developed the world's first compositionally-adjusted, or hedonic, regression-based index of RMBS default rates, covering all prime deals that Bloomberg reports on (you can download the paper here). We update this index monthly, and the results are enclosed below. Show More
After promising to enact the Royal Commission's recommendations to the letter before the report was even released, and then saying it accepted all the recommendations "in principle" after the report was published (whatever that means), Labor have now rejected outright one of the Royal Commission's most important findings: that mortgage... Show More
In my column today I reveal that Australia is now officially experiencing the biggest house price falls on record in almost 40 years: home values across the five largest capital cities have officially fallen 8.3 per cent from their late 2017 peak according to the top index provider, CoreLogic, which... Show More
Here I argue that anyone who tells you they know what's driving markets right now is lying or fooling themselves, which begets opportunity (click on that link to read the full column or AFR subs can click here). Excerpts enclosed: Show More
If house prices are falling as rapidly as some headlines impute, can we expect this to impact AREIT investors? Let’s begin by looking at the facts, rather than the headlines. Housing demand and supply ebbs and flows. Because of the lower barriers to entry there’s often volatility in residential housing. Show More
In the AFR today I outline my views on markets for 2018, including forecasting that Aussie house prices will fall year-on-year for the first time since 2012---after we projected house price increases every year between 2013 and 2017---and that US inflation will surge (in fact, US inflation has already spiked... Show More
In the AFR today I review our best and worst calls of 2017 in what has been a fast-paced and intense 12 months (click on that link to read for free or AFR subs can use the direct link here). I also gave an interview to Livewire in the video... Show More
Brunch and the hashtag "#angryavos" has swept through the Australian press this week after Bernard Salt suggested forgoing $22 brunches was the solution to the millennials housing woes. The response article on the Guardian, pointing out that it would take 175 years of forgone brunch to save a deposit, has... Show More
In The AFR I reveal that Australian house prices have jumped another 0.8% over September and by 2.7% in the September quarter, which is north of an 11% annualised pace in an embarrassing contradiction of the RBA's claims that its May and August rate cuts had not stimulated "a new... Show More
Aussie market opened up with guns blazing and then gave it all up before making a slight recovery at the last few hours. The global markets are over the macro worries. US Fed does the backflip so much that they are opening their own circus…new show on tonight for the... Show More
In The AFR today I publish new analysis demonstrating that the Aussie housing market is going nuts again with national prices soaring 4% over the 3 months to 18 May---or at a 16% annualised pace---and by almost 10% over the prior 12 months (Sydney and Melbourne are now both up... Show More
Good Afternoon, Show More
Sunset Strip | Aussie market delivered a flat day despite the positive global lead. We continue to be negative in the short term as we have not seen any substantial earnings upgrade to change the valuation bands. We remain positive long term, but short term bumps are expected when market... Show More
Sunset Strip | Aussie market followed the global trend with a slight negative day after seven straight positive days. The weekend left us with US Fed moving from dovish stand to neutral while ECB sounding a bit shallow. There were more thought bubbles from the federal government which only served... Show More