On Tuesday, I listened to the Treasurer defend the Govts 2.5% GDP Growth forecast, and beyond that, he firmly believes growth will accelerate to 3.0% then 3.5% in the forward estimates. And a day later, the RBA released GDP figures which showed that the Australian economy would have all but shrunk, without a +2.2% contribution from Government spending in the quarter. Today, the Treasurer proclaimed there is no chance that Australia is heading toward recession (we wrote a piece on these chances in June (VIEW LINK) ). GDP growth is heading toward 2.0%, not 3%. We have been invested in the "short A$ trade" since April 2014, and our conviction to it is rising. Several commentators, both on Livewire and in the press, are making the case for a lower A$. We explain our views and why a tactical allocation to US$ via ETFs can fit nicely in the current uncertain environment. (VIEW LINK)


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James Marlay

Good read guys, thanks for sharing