John Robertson

The weekly jobless claims data from the USA offer some guidance to the trajectory of the US equity market between earnings reports. The chart for 27 September at (VIEW LINK) shows the S&P 500 (red line) and the weekly jobless claims four week moving average (blue line). As the market tracks to new highs, the jobless claims are hitting new cyclical lows. The right hand scale on the chart has been inverted to highlight the connection. Falling jobless claims point to a greater willingness on the part of business to employ suggesting better business profitability and confidence. The numbers also imply improving consumer spending power flagging improved business revenues. The translation of the employment data into actual earnings will again come under the microscope in mid October when September quarter earnings reports begin to flow.


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