Recently we’ve been researching Austrian firetruck manufacturer Rosenbauer International. If you study the associated changes in broker price targets, you’ll find a clear pattern of human psychology that you can exploit over and over again. Efficient market theory implies that with so many educated, intelligent, rational analysts and investors studying the prospects for any given company, how can its shares possibly be mispriced? In his great book, The Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowiecki distinguished between wise and irrational crowds. A wise crowd can predict with remarkable accuracy the number of ping pong balls in the cabin of a car. As an individual, my guess will almost certainly be wrong, and perhaps by a great margin.