Housing and defence stocks set to shine

Centennial Asset Management's Matt Kidman expects the Housing and Defence sectors to outperform over the next 12-24 months.
Michael Carmody

Centennial Asset Management

We are bullish regarding the outlook for the Australian market, particularly small caps that are delivering above-market growth, despite a volatile and eventful period for global equity markets in the last six months.  

Specifically, the Housing and Defence sectors are well-positioned to deliver outperformance over the next several years.   

Where are the equity market exposures?

Housing - prices and approvals are set to rise.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has now cut interest rates twice since the peak in late 2023. The latest cut took place at the May meeting, where rates were cut by a further 0.25%, to 3.85%.  

National auction clearance rates and house prices are on the rise.

Given annual headline inflation has how declined to within the RBA’s target range, we expect several further cash rate cuts over the next 12-18 months.

Government housing policy designed to boost supply and affordability is expected to deliver additional growth for companies exposed to the sector. Specifically, the construction & development sector (land release and construction), as well as household retailers (hardware, furniture, floor covering, and bedroom products), are expected to perform well. Construction plans for new and upgraded venues associated with the Brisbane 2032 Olympics are also expected to contribute economic growth in Queensland over the medium to long term. 

Stock exposures

  • Mirvac (MGR)
  • Stockland (SGP)
  • Australian Finance Group (AFG)
  • Cedar Woods Property (CWP)
  • Peet (PPC)
  • Maas (MGH)
  • Wagners (WGN)

Defence Industries - Expenditure increasing

We expect heightened geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific region to deliver an increase in domestic defence spending over the medium to long term. Additional expenditure for the construction of critical infrastructure and security is set to benefit a number of companies with defence engineering and construction capabilities.    

Stock exposures

  • Downer EDI (DOW)
  • Service Stream (SSM)
  • Ventia Services (VNT)
  • Veem (VEE)
  • Austal (ASB)
  • Codan (CDA)
  • Electro Optic Systems (EOS)
  • Droneshield (DRO)
Managed Fund
The Level 18 Fund (Platform Class)
Australian Shares
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View Disclaimer:View Disclaimer:Strictly confidential: This report has been prepared by Centennial Asset Management ACN 605 827 745 & AFSL No. 515887 for Wholesale Clients only as an indicative record of the performance of an investment in the Level 18 Fund. No recommendation is made or advice given in respect of any entity in which the Level 18 Fund has, is or may in the future be, invested. The contents of this report are confidential, and the client may only disclose such contents to its officers, employees or advisers on a need to know basis, or with the prior written consent of Centennial Asset Management. Centennial Asset Management does not guarantee the performance of the Level 18 Fund or the return of any investor's capital in the Level 18 Fund. This investment report contains historical information, and does not imply any indication of future performance, recommendation or advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any investment needs to be made in accordance with and after reading any relevant offer document. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Assumptions and estimates may have been made which may prove not to be accurate. Centennial Asset Management accepts no responsibility to correct any such inaccuracy. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information. To the full extent permitted by law, none of Centennial Asset Management, or any related body corporate or any officer or employee of any of them makes any warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this report and disclaims all liability that may arise due to any information contained in this newsletter being inaccurate, unreliable or incomplete. *Prior to launch of the Level 18 Fund on 1 September 2014, Centennial Asset Management had established a separately managed account (“SMA”) and performance prior to 1 September 2014 is illustrated on a gross pro-forma basis, that invests with the same mandate as the Level 18 Fund and is included in the tables above, for comparative purposes only. The returns assume reinvestment of distributions.

1 fund mentioned

Michael Carmody
Senior Investment Manager
Centennial Asset Management

Michael is a member of the investment and management team at Centennial Asset Management. Prior to this, Michael worked at Merrill Lynch as a Healthcare Analyst for a decade and more recently at Morgan Stanley within the small cap Institutional...

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