There was no sign of an upside growth surprise in today's global growth forecast revisions by the IMF

John Robertson

PortfolioDirect

There was no sign of an upside growth surprise in today's global growth forecast revisions by the IMF. Upward revisions usually signal the beginnings of a positive cyclical reaction in raw material markets. The IMF has once again pulled back its near term forecast. Partly this reflects an especially weak first quarter in the USA. But the Fund is looking at Japan growing more slowly in the year ahead, Europe still battling to do much better than 1% and China being closer to 6% than 7% once it begins to restructure its investment/consumption mix. The Fund is still forecasting an acceleration in world output growth in 2015 but confidence in this outcome will depend on some evidence that it will not be wound back as the time draws nearer as has happened over the past four years.


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John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business...

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