Understanding expectations (or why we didn’t buy Blackmores)

Hugh Dive

We look at a range of factors when looking at the growth prospects of a potential investment. These factors include the size of the target market, whether that market is growing, the nature of the competitive environment, management capabilities, and the probability of some event or legislative change occurring - this can derail even the most robust growth story. If all of this points to an attractive potential investment, we then backsolve the earnings growth that is implied in the current share price. In January 2016, we had a close look at Blackmores, which was trading at a share price of $215. If we assumed that consensus forecasts were correct and that the company increased profits by 190% over the next three years; the $215 share price assumed compound annual growth of over 10% for the following ten years. While Blackmores is a successful company with a great track record, the last company to achieve a compounded growth rate of 10% over a 10-year period was Microsoft in the period ending 2004. We did not invest in Blackmores.


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