There is always quite a difference between theory and the practice. For example: Where are we going to isolate and quarantine the over 70 Group ? Are they going to be put in large Aged Care Facilities ? Does this mean no visits from Family and friends? The mental health of >70's will deteriorate quickly without family contact, and i would think many elderly people would prefer to die with their family with them in their last days.
Nice work Chris, and thank you for sharing both your AFR article and your team's research. If we work on the idea that the virus isn't going to be a big problem anymore, (say end of April), then how much damage is already done? Both virus dependent and independent. Easier to see the independent factors at the momo - the price of crude is probably going down much more (and there is no storage capacity left) and the FRA-OIS spread is still saying there is mistrust amongst the global lending giants despite QE infinity. That isn't a virus related problem, yet it will have an impact on markets.
The economy (and mental health of individuals) won't take a month let alone 6 months of hibernation that the PM proposes. Where are the business leaders to advise him on this crazy idea? The high risk cohort (over 70s) requires most of the ICUs and hospital resources (flattening the curve idea) hence self-isolation of this age group should be no brainer (I, as a 68yo would gladly do it). It should immediately be followed by testing for immunity before being released (with a proof) for normal living. Majority of this age group are retirees and have no need to go to any work place anyway.
It wouldn't only be >70 that you would need to quarantine but would it? it would be anyone with a co-morbidity. Also possibly anyone in hospital for other conditions or recovering from major ailments/surgeries. Not to mention a lot of these people will still need food, medical and other types of care. Who will give that to them? After the lockdown I don't understand how you have addressed spread between the general population? Jury is still out on Hydroxychloriquine, Azithromycin, Z-Pack. Plenty of the countries you mention using it are still seeing deaths & in some cases many deaths. For all we know those it's helping reduce the severity and duration of symptons in, were going to survive anyway and it's not otherwise making a difference to the clinical outcomes of those that are dieng. Upon some digging there remains questions marks about the French Doctor and study. The chinese study was not in the affirmative. In NY some doctor's are prescribing a course to ever person that walks in the door, so hard to determine efficacy as most people would still be expected to survive anyway. It's good to have hope, but lets keep an open mind and not pin it all on one cure before the works been done.
A prescient and exceptionally well written analysis. This should be forwarded immediately to the PMs office Dr Anthony Sved
Three big assumptions are made in this article that have not yet been definitively backed by peer-reviewed science and could significantly skew data and projections: 1. Once you've contracted covid-19 and recovered, you are forever immune. 2. Additional waves of virus spread once lock-down rules are relaxed will have minimal impact. 3. The antiviral drugs actually work. Let's hope for humanity each of the assumptions above come to fruition, but banking on that today is a gamble
Laughable to think there will be no permanent damage given 30 years of no recession. First we had the bushfires after decades of inadequate burns now we're going to have the economic equivalent.
Chris - you are a rare voice of clarity in the media. Keep it coming. If the testing can be done in the volume you are suggesting then practically and politically it could be a goer. The economy desperately needs a plan to get back to work (particularly small business), but it won't happen if the perceived risk of a health disaster is lingering - which it is now and not helped by fear-mongering / poor analysis by most of the mainstream/public media, particularly the pseudo-expert on the ABC.
Always nice work. Thanks Chris. I believe we need around twenty five million test kits. One for every man woman and child. Then we'd know for sure if we had the virus or not and whether to isolate. Winter is approaching and you're not going to know if you've got a cold, or something more? Until this happens mass confusion will remain.
And the PCR test is not demonstrably accurate. It cannot determine the amount of the virus in the body. It overstates the rate of infection.