Thumbs up for the update too. I have had to talk three people down from buying on the weekend, and they are not "sophisticated" investors. The buy the dip mentality is pervasive. We've got expiry this week and next, so that will add to the mix.
Hi Marcus, I've been cautiously buying a few of my favourite stock picks over the past few trading days. I'm trying to dollar cost average back in while the current panic persists. I find it impossible to buy stocks at there lowest point, so I just try and be consistent in my approach. I also agree that we haven't seen the bottom of this market. It worries me when governments starts buying up government bonds worth billions of dollars to try and control the interest rates and economic stability. Maybe all their other options are drying up? Crazy also to see that Americans are having a run on fire arm stores and ammo, fearing they're going to miss out, or run out. While here in Australia we're still fighting over toilet paper. Thanks for another great read, I always like your perspective.
"we'll call it in the newsletter when we think its time" … was just too persuasive so I signed up!
I remember Gomes Addams used to buy on the way down and sell on the rise. Then go crash his trains. Might be a good time to just sit and wait on the station!!
thanks for your insights Marcus, now we just have to wait , will look forward to your next update
Brilliant perspective, always love reading your wires! Thank you
I have enjoyed reading your posts since this crash began and I find myself nodding in agreement as I read. But I disagree that by focusing on health outcomes that the economic outcome is compromised. It is in the short term but not long term. Health and economic outcomes are of course intertwined. If you get infection numbers controlled, you ultimately protect the economy but yes it comes at a short term shock- look at the economic figures coming out of China. Better a short shock to the system through somewhat draconian measures to control infections than a prolonged downturn. Panic is rife but good outcomes are possible with good governance and policy imposition & execution. You only have to look at the result in Singapore, Taiwan and now South Korea & China. Singapore & Taiwan have very small infection numbers and they are controlled & were from the outset. South Korea & China turned their infection numbers around despite losing early control. Their economies are 'normalizing' despite short, sharp drops. I would suggest stimulating demand will stimulate a supply response and in turn markets. That's what governments do during war and it works. This is a war of sorts. It's not all doom. Yet.
Good article but let's keep in mind that a lot of top 100 stock prices have fallen 30 - 50% already so some of the slowdown is priced in. Not saying it's an outright buy either but don't let fear affect our judgement too much. CSL is holding really well along with WOW. I will keep dollar cost averaging my SG contributions into the growth option as I have a 15 year timeframe. My 2c anyway!
Thanks Marcus. That bell curve is interesting. School of thought in UK: go for the pink curve, get it over and done with in 2 months. Blue curve takes at least 6 months. Agree with everything you've said. The fallout is not over yet, and then we are left with debt. Will be a shame if we lose our *** credit rating. We are one of the few countries that still has that. I'm comforted that Australians are pretty good at making it through difficult times though. Agree with everything you've said.
Twiggy doesn't buy when he thinks his stock is cheap - he buys when he KNOWS it's cheap.
The Dow Jones Industrial Index is still 300% above its GFC low (Feb'09). In Australia, the ASX200 is only 45% above that low. Does that mean that the U.S. market is more robust or has just not fully come to terms with the economic fallout from this crisis?
Nod, nod, nod... Thanks Marcus. Enjoy your commentary, here and on radio over the years. I'm an Aussie living under a "Shelter-in-Place Order" in Chicago, invested in both Markets, with both hands on my own reins. I'm out of equities and in gold in US, which has also taken a bit of a punch-up. Some say it is because of the need of the big boys and girls to service of margin calls. Your thoughts?
Good thinking Marcus, I fully agree with your comments. Gerry Reitsma