Watch the futures market, not the dot plot

Livewire Exclusive

Livewire Markets

Charlie Jamieson, Executive Director at Jamieson Coote Bonds, thinks the Fed is unlikely to follow through on the two rate hikes suggested by the latest ‘dot plot’ released by their Open Markets Committee. Rather than the much-analysed dot plot, he suggests investors should instead be paying attention to the futures market. “Since February 1994… when Greenspan unexpectedly hiked, we’ve had a forward statement from the Federal Reserve. We’ve had 126 Fed meetings since that date. In all 126 of those Fed meetings, the Federal Reserve has never adjusted interest rate policy unless the Fed Funds Futures market has priced that move ahead of time.” The Fed Funds Futures currently imply an 18% chance of a hike in June and less than 50% chance for the December meeting. Watch the full video below.


3 topics

Livewire Exclusive brings you exclusive content from a wide range of leading fund managers and investment professionals.

I would like to

Only to be used for sending genuine email enquiries to the Contributor. Livewire Markets Pty Ltd reserves its right to take any legal or other appropriate action in relation to misuse of this service.

Personal Information Collection Statement
Your personal information will be passed to the Contributor and/or its authorised service provider to assist the Contributor to contact you about your investment enquiry. They are required not to use your information for any other purpose. Our privacy policy explains how we store personal information and how you may access, correct or complain about the handling of personal information.