US rates

Chris Manuell

The most important factor driving bond markets is the direction of global Central Bank short-term interest rates, as many of them are attempting to normalise rates in a post GFC era. The challenge is to achieve this without roiling capital markets, as we are late in the global business cycle,... Show More

Etienne Alexiou

On the 9th March 1987 U2 released the Joshua Tree, the fastest selling British Album of all time that went on to sell over 25 million copies. Joshua Tree is still acclaimed as one of the greatest albums of all time. Interestingly Bono considered pulling the album prior to its... Show More

Etienne Alexiou

We are used to the experience of economic developments influencing and sometimes determining political events. This past year we have seen political events influencing markets and economic forecasts more than usual. The rise of the populists as a reaction to the specific disaffection with wage stagnation, immigration and terrorism is... Show More

Patrick Poke

In Bill Gross’ latest note to investors he has bucked consensus once again. Despite the possibility of “a temporary acceleration over the next few years,” he maintains his long-term negative view based on demographics, debt levels, technology, and the reversal of globalization. In absence of clear fundamentals, he turns to... Show More

Livewire News

Garry Laurence from Perpetual recent shared an interesting chart, originally created by Jonathan Garner from Morgan Stanley. The chart shows how global equity markets perform after a second interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. "Interestingly valuations don't change after one interest rate hike, but after the second interest... Show More

After reaching as low as 1.36% in July, the US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed steadily to 1.69%, ushering in market speculation that after falling for 35 years, bond yields have seen an inflection point. Jeff Gundlach from LA-based asset management firm, DoubleLine Capital, was widely quoted as saying “interest... Show More

Chris Stott, Chief Investment Officer at Wilson Asset Management, thinks the Australian market is fairly priced at its current PE of around 15-16 times - slightly above the long-term average. With rate hikes due in the US opening the possibility of a short-term correction, plus the expectation of further rate... Show More

Angus Coote

Our expectations haven’t changed since the symposium. The most likely outcome we believe is that the Fed embark on a “dovish hikes” theme. The problem with increasing interest rates in the current environment is that risk markets (equities) are far more interest rate sensitive than in previous cycles. The effect... Show More