Nobel Prize winners and fund managers warn of possible recession this year; Australian home lending data points to further declines in housing; and Michael Mauboussin urges investors to ask themselves 'who is on the other side of the trade?' Here's what's happening in markets today. 

What I'm reading 

Recession fears abound among economists and fund managers

On almost every major financial news source this morning there were headlines warning of recessions and bear market fears. On Bloomberg, Nobel Prize winner, Robert Shiller said recession risks were elevated. On CNBC, another Nobel Prize winner, Paul Krugman said to expect a global recession in 2019 and warned against the lack of a response mechanism. While the AFR reported that the Bank of America Merrill Lynch's February Fund Manager Survey showed fund managers boosting their cash reserves.

Australian home lending data deeply negative

The ABS's recently revamped Lending to Households and Businesses series showed huge falls in credit across the board. On a seasonally adjusted basis, total lending fell 7.1% month-on-month and 10.9% year-on-year. 

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Landing a winner

Michael Maubossin, one of the world's leading investment thinkers and researchers, just released this 52 page research paper about identifying market inefficiencies. 

Access research

Stocks to watch

• Intellectual property law firm, IPH Limited (IPH) has announced that it's taken a 19.9% stake in Xenith IP (XIP). The company stated it purchased the shares to "participate in industry consolidation".

A huge number of companies have released results this morning, mostly half-year reports. Here's the list at the time of writing:

• CSL Limited (CSL)
• Beach Energy Limited (BPT)
• HT&E Limited (HT1)
• Evolution Mining (EVN)
• Aveo Group (AOG)
• Computershare Limited (CPU)
• Bapcor (BAP)
• Virgin Australia Holding (VAH)
• Tabcorp (TAH)
• Orora Limted (ORA)
• Northern Star Resources Limited (NST)
• GBST Holdings Limited (GBT)
• Carsales.com Limited (CAR)
• Skycity Entertainment Group (SKC)

Key market data

• ASX Futures: 6,046.0 (+0.12%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7096 (+0.47%)
• ASX200: 6,079.10 (+0.30%)
• S&P 500: 2,744.73 (+1.29%)
• China A50: 11,649.51 (+0.07%)
• Australia 2-yr bond: 1.751 (+0.46%)
• Australia 10-yr bond: 2.126 (+1.09%)
• US 2-yr bond: 2.504 (+0.68%)
• US 10-yr bond: 2.686 (+1.20%)
• Gold (USD/oz): 1,314.20 (+0.18%)
• Copper (USD/lb): 2.774 (-0.57%)
• Brent Oil (USD/bbl): 62.59 (+1.76%)

Upcoming events and releases

• Westpac's Consumer Confidence for February is due at 10:30am
• British CPI data for January is due overnight Sydney time
• US CPI data for January is due early tomorrow morning Sydney time.

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