What's in store for the price of crude oil in the coming months

What's in store for the price of crude oil in the coming months? On one hand, geopolitical risk is likely to keep prices elevated in the near future. The situation between Russia and Ukraine is a catalyst for higher prices, along with the consistent tension in the Middle East. However, on the other hand, significant supplies should push prices down looking forward. Sanctions against Iran are ending and Iraq's oil fields are coming on line as well. Plus, the US continues to ramp up its production based on shale oil projects. At some point, robust supply should outpace the geopolitical risk premium in the price of crude. As such, while oil prices could stay above $100 per barrel in the near future (or even spike higher on news), I believe the medium-term direction of the price of crude is down.