September 27th, 1983. What comes to mind? What if I include the quote from Bob Hawke? “Any boss who sacks a worker for not turning up today is a bum”. If you are over 45, you will know straight away. It was the day the yacht Australia II won the... Show More
Although much of the focus remains on the February market activity, a tipping point between unemployment and inflation in the US approaches and so inflation remains a key risk. February revealed the first cracks in the relative market stability of the last year, as higher inflation fears both drove bond... Show More
Last week, the White House announced tariffs on imported steel and aluminum of 25% and 10% respectively – a move that sparked global indignation and threats of a trade war. But tariffs are more common than you may imagine. Show More
The prospect of a trade war has become more significant again. While China may fare worse than the US in this scenario, there are some broader implications that could enhance China's power on the global stage, not least via the One Belt One Road initiative. Here I discuss this and... Show More
Local market bounced back on positive US and China economic data. The local business capex outlook data was positive but the weak consumer sentiment shows that one has not translated to the other since GFC. The GDP growth rate hit 3% and maintains the recovery pace we have seen in... Show More
As usual with a big fall you can analyse the overnight news and debate whether the drop is warranted, but when it comes to a free market that rides on sentiment the answer is not whether the market should fall 274 points because the National Economic Council director is going... Show More
Implied volatility is now trading at record lows across a variety of asset classes, especially in US equities. This means that option markets are priced in the belief that the economic and political outlook in America and the world is as stable as it has been for more than 25... Show More
We recently met with 170 companies as part of a research road trip that crossed the US and Europe, to test existing investment theses, and look for new opportunities and trends. One key takeaway was that we have found far more attractive opportunities in global small to midcap (SMID) companies.... Show More
US ten-year bond yields have fallen approximately 25bp since March and are at around 2.1%. Australian government bond yields have likewise fallen by around 60bp to 2.4%, after briefly looking to breach 3% back in February. However, what is more notable is the narrowing of the spread between the two,... Show More
According to forecasts from earlier this year by the World Bank, the global economy is expected to average a Real GDP growth rate of 2.8% between 2017-2019. This infographic from Visual Capitalist looks at individual countries between 2017-2019, based on their individual growth projections from the World Bank, to see... Show More
The global economy is now more than seven years into a durable but modest expansion. But what will happen when the cyclical tailwind that began last summer fades? And how will key policies in the world’s major economies pivot in response to both rising populist pressures and diminishing returns from... Show More
The market is expecting US growth to rebound from its temporary hiatus in the March quarter, and for China's growth to slow only modestly this year. If both of those things happen the equity train can stay on the rails for a while longer, with growth being neither too hot... Show More
Local market was started positive before falling and then making a decent recovery on average China inflation data to finish mainly flat. Tomorrow is the last day of trading before we go into a four-day long weekend…not sure investors want to leave global markets open to US/Russia/Syria/China/North Korea for that... Show More
Each half, we provide a series of “anti-forecasts” for what will NOT happen over this period. Discover whether our July 2016 calls ended up being right. Next week, we will publish our forecasts for the coming six months. http://www.morphicasset.com/blog/scorecard-anti-forecasts-dec-16/?woo_source=Livewire/ Show More
In The Australian Financial Review I return to a thesis I championed years ago---escalating geopolitical volatility as the once dominant global hegemon, America, grapples with China, its first non-democratic rival since the Soviet Union with secular uncertainty amplified by the asymmetric power afforded by the advent of cyber as the... Show More
A lot of Australians need to get out more! Generally, allocations to international equities are very light for most investors, even though Australia represents less than 2% of global market cap. With this in mind, a lot of investors still prefer the comfort of investing in locally listed vehicles. The... Show More
Aussie market flip flopped between China stimulus, NZ deflation worry and falling local consumer sentiment before Chinese market selloff and falling US market futures really took the market down south. The worry about US market was clear to see today as the selling came in hard in the last few... Show More
Aussie market started flat and moved positive after China growth outlook was in the ball park while leaving option for potential stimulus. The currency once again pushed back above 69 cents while upcoming Chinese New Year unlikely to support stronger commodity prices in the next few weeks. The recent corrections... Show More
Aussie market opened negative with global markets before recovering some losses. The market gave most of the China bounce form yesterday to the US fall today. Tomorrow is Friday and investors will not be willing to make big bets on a Friday with heightened market worry. The market worry is... Show More
Aussie market opened on positive sentiment and then was further supported by the job vacancy data before the Chinese trade data set the rocket under the market. We saw a lot of short covering as the volatility index reached stretched levels and further boosted the market performance today. The positive... Show More
