Mathan Somasundaram

The chart below shows the trend in disposable income per capita basis in Australia has already turned negative. When you put this in the context of slowing global growth, falling commodities, falling terms of trade, falling real wages, rising taxes, rising unemployment, historically high debt and the property bubble; we see the lack of reform policy work over the past few years will almost certainly leave Australia open to substantial economic volatility. Australia is running into the end of mining, manufacturing and housing boom with only high unemployment, debt and deficit to show for it. We remain of the view that RBA will be forced to cut rates twice in 2016 and AUD/USD will eventually fall with sliding economy. The property bubble is already showing signs of breaking as banks raising rates out of cycle to cover their rising cost of funds and rising risk of bad debts. Australia is going to see a substantial slowdown and how we compromise to reform will determine how close we go towards recession. (VIEW LINK)


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