Where to next for this ASX small-cap sensation?

Last week I wrote about two ASX 200 Healthcare stocks that were showing promise after what has been an ignominious year for the sector, to put it mildly. 

Healthcare has always been a popular hunting ground for growth investors, and accounted for 3 of the top 10 most-tipped growth stocks for 2025 from our readers. 

Unfortunately, those picks (CSL, Pro Medicus and Telix) collectively returned -28.6% so far in 2025, with the Healthcare sector itself down 22%.

But outside the top end of town, there's one healthcare stock that has gone from strength to strength and has quickly established itself as one of the ASX's most compelling growth stories.

For those playing along at home, the stock is 4DMedical Ltd (ASX: 4DX), which has skyrocketed more than 1,000% in the second half of 2025 and making the rarified list of ASX Ten Baggers. 

Following its 2020 IPO, a volatile few years saw 4DX shares crash from $2.38 to as low as $0.24, but the medical imaging company has rebounded spectacularly thanks to a number of breakthrough wins in recent months.  

But has this recent run left the stock overvalued, given its modest earnings and lack of profitability, or are investors getting in early on a company set for market domination?

Metrics

• FY25 total revenue: $5.9 million
• FY25 EBIT: -$38.1 million
• FY25 reported NPAT: -$30.1 million
• FY26e total revenue: $11 million
• FY26e revenue growth: 88%
• FY26e EBIT: -$27.2 million
• FY26e reported NPAT: -$20.8 million

The key catalysts

1. Pro Medicus investment

At the end of July, 4DMedical announced it had secured a $10 million strategic investment from erstwhile ASX darling Pro Medicus (ASX: PME). 

Not only was it a tacit tick of approval from a company making its own headway in the medical imaging industry, the investment helped accelerate 4D's product development and US approval for its flagship CT:VQ imaging technology and the option for further commercial pathways.

2. FDA approval

In September, 4D was given regulatory clearance from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for its CT:VQ technology, which the company describes as “the world’s first and only non-contrast, CT-based ventilation-perfusion imaging technology”.

This opened the door to a US$1.1 billion addressable market, with the company expecting to "displace 100% of all nuclear VQ scans" eventually. 

3. Phillips deal

Following FDA clearance, global healthcare giant Phillips announced in early December it would be adding CT:VQ to its North American product range, with a minimum contractual commitment of US$10 million over two years. 

It marked a key milestone in 4D's ability to crack the lucrative US market, with Phillips also committing a dedicated sales force to promoting CT:VQ.  

4. Canadian approval

This week, 4D announced it had also secured regulatory approval from Health Canada for its CT:VQ product, allowing it to immediately roll out in the country as part of 4D's Phillips partnership. 

As 4D wrote in its ASX announcement confirming the development, "with regulatory approval now secured in both markets, Philips can immediately activate its North American distribution infrastructure for CT:VQ, leveraging its established commercial networks and customer relationships to drive rapid adoption across hospitals and imaging centres."

The remaining risks

Those critical regulatory and commercial breakthroughs have seen 4D move from promise to potential powerhouse, and investors have responded.

Despite the current golden period, brokers have raised some existing risks to the company, even as many have set lofty price targets that have now been met. 

Bell Potter suggests that 4D's inability to date to produce meaningful revenue or positive cash flow remains a concern, even if recent developments may pave the way for improvements.

It has also flagged uncertainty regarding 4D's reliance on third-party providers, remaining regulatory hurdles for its other products, and the risk of superseding technologies that could disrupt its innovations.

Ord Minnett summarised the situation well in a note to clients. 

"We remain positive on 4DX’s longer-term opportunity, particularly the potential for CT:VQ to drive near-term installed-base growth and revenue generation." 

"Notwithstanding this, we expect the ramp-up will require patience and caution investors chasing ‘the next Pro Medicus’."

"While this is certainly in the range of outcomes (4DX global TAM >$35b, >95% underlying GMs), we are looking for CT:VQ sales execution in FY26E ahead of incorporating a more bullish scenario."

What are your thoughts on 4DX?

Is this an ASX growth stock that has run too hot or a true market star about to go supernova? Let us know in the comments.