Whilst equities have had a fantastic few years since 2009, i'm bearish medium to long-term (5+ years)

Jordan Eliseo

The Perth Mint

Whilst equities have had a fantastic few years since 2009, i'm bearish medium to long-term (5+ years). None of the problems of the GFC are solved, we now have crushing sovereign debt levels that continue to deteriorate, and markets (bond & stock) are completely reliant on central bank stimulus. Consider also that the Shiller S&P 500 P/E ratio is close to 25 today. The idea that a new bull market would start from such lofty levels is highly questionable, especially with earnings at levels which are unlikely to be maintained. Add all this together and the risk of a significant loss of capital in equity markets is likely, at least in real terms. Despite this, in a QE world any balanced investor probably needs to be long stocks, as their are precious few alternatives, but i'd personally steer clear of concentrating a large portion of your portfolio in equities

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Jordan Eliseo
The Perth Mint

Gold bull since early 2000. Have spent +20yrs working in investment analytics, research & portfolio construction. Author of two books on investing in gold and the causes of the GFC. Lover of markets, competition & technology

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