Why aren't US equities responding more harshly to geopolitical events

Jay Soloff

Argonath Financial

Why aren't US equities responding more harshly to geopolitical events? Between heightening Ukraine/Russia tensions, an end to the Israel/Gaza ceasefire, and commencing airstrikes in Iraq, you'd think investors would be more cautious vis-a-vis US stocks. Yet, over the last week, the S&P 500 is actually up nearly a half a percent. To confuse matters even more, safe-haven investments are clearly in demand. The price of gold has broken above $1,300/oz and the 10-year Treasury yield is down to 2.41%. Does the rise in US equities suggest they are also considered safe-haven investments these days? To some extent, yes. None of the current geopolitical risk should impact US corporate earnings all that much - and earnings, more than any thing else, drive the long-term price of stocks. It's also noteworthy that realized volatility has been running significantly lower than implied volatility since May.


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Jay Soloff
Jay Soloff
Research Analyst
Argonath Financial

I'm an investments analyst for a US-based independent investment research firm. My focus is on economics, options, and all types of stocks, but especially tech, Internet, and renewable energy companies. I have experience as a options market...

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