TOL - 10th Feb, 2024
Why Lazard's Temple would buy equities over bonds even at today's prices
Lazard's chief market strategist Ron Temple updates his views on the US economy, China, fixed income, and geopolitical risk.
A year ago, most investors, including Lazard's Ronald Temple, were pricing in some sort of US-led recession.
What they had not realised was just how resilient consumers had become. $5.3 trillion in fiscal stimulus had been handed out to American consumers - even though the US makes up just 4% of the world population. The cash allowed consumers to keep spending even when the world effectively shut down.
It's for this very reason that Temple now believes the US will not only avoid a recession - but achieve that cherished soft landing. Not only that, equities can rally off the back of continued earnings strength and a series of welcome rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
It all sounds really good, doesn't it? It is, says Temple. But there are still many risks and uncertainties that are yet to be resolved.
In this episode of Views from the Top, I sit down with Temple to discuss why his views have changed so dramatically, where you should be looking for opportunities today, and the role of geopolitics in your investment decision-making.
Timestamps
- 0:00 - Intro
- 0:38 - What could upset a soft landing view?
- 3:03 - When do you expect rate cuts to begin?
- 4:48 - Do you still expect earnings downgrades to come in 2024?
- 8:02 - Opportunities in equity markets ex-US
- 10:43 - Should you be buying bargains in the Chinese equity market?
- 11:58 - How do moves in the bond market affect valuation strategy?
- 14:00 - An in-depth look at investing with geopolitical risk in mind
- 15:53 - What is your view from the top?
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Hans leads the team's coverage of the global economy and fixed income. He is the creator and moderator of Signal or Noise, Livewire's multimedia series dedicated to top-down investing.
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Hans leads the team's coverage of the global economy and fixed income. He is the creator and moderator of Signal or Noise, Livewire's multimedia series dedicated to top-down investing.
Expertise
Hans leads the team's coverage of the global economy and fixed income. He is the creator and moderator of Signal or Noise, Livewire's multimedia series dedicated to top-down investing.
Expertise
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